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NOAA expects La Nina to develop by fall or winter

2 months 1 week 1 day ago Monday, July 19 2021 Jul 19, 2021 July 19, 2021 5:37 PM July 19, 2021 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

While the top line of a La Niña pattern usually steers conversation toward the tropics, as of late July, there may be a more pressing question for Gulf Coast residents. Will the wet weather pattern ever let up?

 

To date, Baton Rouge Metro Airport has registered 54.29 inches of rain making it the wettest year-to-date on record. 1989 had 54.17 inches inches by this point. Since 1930, Baton Rouge has averaged about 59 inches of rain per year. The wettest calendar on record was 2016 with 90.54 inches of rain.

 

So will the daily showers and thunderstorms take a break? There are a few factors making a quieter pattern more likely. First, late summer and fall tend to be the driest time of the year across Louisiana, Mississippi and the central Gulf Coast. By September and October, the atmosphere is rather warm and much more stable than spring and early summer, which makes it more difficult for daytime warming and the sea breeze to dictate weather.  Second, the development of a La Niña pattern favors drier conditions along the central Gulf Coast. When firmly in control, La Niña usually causes the steering currents for significant storm systems to move north and east of Louisiana.


The local forecast also suggests some drier time is in sight within the next 7 days. CLICK HERE to read your Baton Rouge Area weather blog, updated twice daily by our team of meteorologists.


To those looking to sneak in a mow of the lawn or wanting an uninterrupted weekend afternoon, be patient. La Niña is a notorious driver of increased tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin as well. Many of the busiest years on record, including 2020, occurred when a La Niña pattern was in place.

 

At this time, the Climate Prediction Center has a 66% chance of La Niña developing during the September to November time period. The experts cite a “model” consensus and the fact that 2020 was a full cool season of La Niña, which is typically prevalent for two consecutive winters.

 

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