The Tropics: The National Hurricane Center has started issuing official, tropical weather outlooks. While this was previously done on the first day of hurricane season, June 1, last year the NHC decided to start outlooks earlier due to the recent string of pre-season tropical systems. In this year's first outlook, no development is expected over the next 5 days.
The Explanation: The last rounds of showers and thunderstorms for the week will be created by an upper level trough of low pressure lifting through the Great Plains during the middle of the week. An associated cold front will be pulled eastward and into the local area on Wednesday afternoon. With plenty of instability by that time and even higher atmospheric moisture than previous days, widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop. Since wind shear is lacking, there is not significant threat for severe thunderstorms but some downpours certainly remain possible, if not likely. The action may continue overnight and into early Thursday until the cold front passes through the area. From Wednesday to Thursday morning, area wide totals of 2 to 4 inches are likely with isolated amounts over 6 inches. While the area has been in drought conditions of late, the last few days have moistened up the soil enough that this rainfall could cause some problems. Yes, it does appear this cold front will move through the area to change up conditions into the Memorial Day Weekend. Surface high pressure and an upper level ridge of high pressure will quickly build in behind the front and we will see dry weather return. Not only will humidity be quite a bit lower, but low temperatures could be in the low 60s on Friday and Saturday morning. The high temperatures will not be as affected, still climbing into the upper 80s due to ample sunshine. By Sunday and Monday, highs will be back into the low 90s with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. After all, it is late May.
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While many locations have already received 2 to 4 inches of rain and some isolated totals as high as 10 inches, the heaviest activity is pegged for Wednesday and Wednesday...
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