Weak cold front expected Saturday night
Some 1930 Baton Rouge Metro Airport records have been easily falling over the last few days. Area wide data that goes back to 1892 is also being challenged by the unseasonable warmth.
Today and Tonight: Friday will soar back into the upper 80s with partly to mostly sunny skies and light, southwest winds. 89 degrees would be good enough to tie a Baton Rouge area record that goes back to 1899. Overnight will be partly cloudy with low temperatures near 70 degrees.
Up Next: The arrival of the next cold front has slowed and therefore Saturday should be another warm one. Highs will reach the upper 80s before a weak front chugs into the region late. This system could create a few showers or thunderstorms, especially north of I-12, but severe weather is not expected. Sunday will be a bit cooler and drier. An upper level disturbance and associated frontal system will create some showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. This one will need to be watched for strong thunderstorms.
A ridge of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere will continue to dictate above average warmth over the next two days. The warmest temperatures will occur inland, away from cooling marine influences. In the summer months, marine breezes tend to spark showers and thunderstorms but the sinking air beneath the ridge nixes out that possibility and instigates further warming. A cold front will move into the region on Saturday evening. Despite plenty of warmth and moisture to work with, most of the upper level support for any severe weather will stay well north of the local area. Therefore, just scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday night, with the best rain chances north of I-12. The front will clear the area leaving behind slightly cooler and drier air for Sunday and Monday. However, like many before, this front will retreat north as a warm front on Monday stirring up clouds and a few showers.
Another cold front will quickly supersede that passage Tuesday into Wednesday. Depending on the position of the associated upper level low, this system could pose a greater risk for strong thunderstorms. At this time, the GFS model keeps the upper low well north and is a more benign scenario; the ECMWF model brings the upper low directly over the local area, which could result in severe weather.
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