Hot and mainly dry conditions will begin the week before showers and storms return. The Tropical Atlantic is starting to get active.

The Tropics: A disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms accompanies a tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands. This disturbance is expected to continue scooting west over the Caribbean Sea during the next few of days, and the fast motion will limit significant development. By the end of the week, the system may slow in the western Caribbean where upper-level winds could become more conducive for the development of a tropical depression. The National Hurricane Center places a development chance at 60 percent.

A second tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic has become better organized with increasing showers and thunderstorms near a center. Conditions are forecast to be favorable for the development of a tropical depression over the next few days moves west-northwest at 15mph through the tropical Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center places a development chance at 90 percent.

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There are two tropical waves worth monitoring in the Atlantic Basin. Expect an uptick of all kinds of activity (not just weather) over the next few weeks. Follow @NHC_Atlantic & @WBRZweather for updates! https://t.co/Hviihdi0Ka

— Josh Eachus (@DrJoshWX) August 18, 2020

The Next 24 Hours: The overnight hours will be mostly clear with slightly more comfortable conditions. Light, north winds will allow low temperatures into the low 70s. With a continued flow of continental air from the north, drier conditions will continue on Tuesday. Though not as humid as average, it will be just as hot with high temperatures surging into the mid 90s beneath mostly sunny skies.

The Long Term Trend: By Wednesday, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast. Activity will be near the coast overnight and in the morning and inland during the afternoon. 30 to 50 percent measurable rain coverage is expected Wednesday through Saturday across the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area. Highs will be in the low 90s with lows in the mid 70s.  

The Explanation: An unseasonably dry air mass will remain in place through Wednesday. Lower dew points will mean lower humidity. Since dry air heats and cools more efficiently than humid air, overnight lows will dip 1-3 degrees below average and afternoon highs will ride well into the mid 90s. Fortunately, the steam will be subdued. This is all thanks to an upper level trough of low pressure over the Southeastern U.S. that will be pinched westward and over the local area by midweek. With the axis of this trough nearby, there will be a combination of instability and lift for an uptick in showers and thunderstorms. No single day looks more active than another, but if we had to pick a “most likely” day for rain, Thursday would be the bet. By the weekend, the trough may start to flatten out a little bit, but the area will remain in a weak spot of lower pressure between a large Southwest U.S. ridge and a western Atlantic ridge. That western Atlantic ridge will be a key driver of tropical systems over the coming few weeks.   

--Josh

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