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Rain increasing overnight, dreary days ahead

9 months 4 days 12 hours ago Thursday, January 21 2021 Jan 21, 2021 January 21, 2021 5:00 PM January 21, 2021 in Forecast Discussion
Source: WBRZ Weather

A cold front will crawl south through the Baton Rouge area into Friday. This will set up a period of rainfall over southwest Mississippi and southeast Louisiana.  

The Next 24 Hours: With cloud cover and temperatures steady in the low 60s, Showers will increase in coverage overnight from northwest to southeast. Around midnight and beyond, rain is expected to become a bit steadier and could briefly fall at a moderate rate in spots. The morning commute could be a little slow going on Friday as pockets of rain linger. By midday, rain will taper to spotty showers and we will be left with an otherwise cloudy and cool day with thermometers in the mid 60s. Approximately 1-2 inches of rain is expected with the highest amounts over neighborhoods north of I-12.         

After That: Since a front will be stalled near the coast, a lingering shower is possible into Saturday morning. Temperatures will climb from the low 50s into the low 60s. The area will remain beneath clouds for most of the weekend. Sunday is expected to be a touch warmer with highs back into the 70s. This warmup will set the stage for more showers along another cold front on Monday afternoon and evening. That front may repeat the same pattern of wobbling around the area with periodic showers right through next week. CLICK HERE to view your complete 7-Day Forecast.   

The Explanation: Southerly winds have enhanced moisture across the region, priming the atmosphere for some rain once a trigger appears. That trigger will arrive in the form of a cold front overnight Thursday. This boundary will generate enough lift to develop a swath of rain. Model guidance points to a slow northwest to southeast overspread from Thursday evening into Friday morning. Initial scattered showers will give way to steadier precipitation between midnight and dawn. Generally, an inch of rain is expected, though there is potential for some totals of 2-3 inches north of I-12 and especially in southwest Mississippi. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted this area in a marginal risk for excessive rain due to the slow moving nature of the front and the potential for training. Rain will taper from north to south into Friday afternoon but clouds will make for a dreary day with temperatures remaining fairly steady. Showers will hug the stalling front near the Louisiana coast and a few could try to drift inland early Saturday but most of the time will be dry. A peek or two of sunshine is possible over the weekend. The same front will work north as a warm front on Sunday night into Monday priming the atmosphere for a cold front coming from the west. Tapping the refueled air mass, the cold front will send a band of showers and thunderstorms through the area Monday afternoon and evening. That front too could linger and wobble back and forth across the region for a few more periods of rain during the middle and end of next week. Without any strong, clean cold frontal passages, temperatures are expected to remain near and above average.          

--Josh

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