More cooking, little soaking
Rain coverage will be minimal through Tuesday, which will lead to hotter temperatures for a longer time. Feels like readings will spend a few hours over 100 degrees.
Today and Tonight: Tuesday will be another afternoon with mostly sunny skies. There is an outside shot at a pop-up shower, mainly south of I-10, but very few will benefit from a cool down. High temperatures will reach near 94 degrees, with calm winds. Overnight will be mostly clear with low temperatures around 75 degrees.
Up Next: Wednesday, weather will begin to transition into a more typical afternoon shower and thunderstorm pattern. Isolated activity may creep north of the highways. Then on Thursday, a trough to the north will provide more instability for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Look for this setup to be in place through Saturday, which will keep high temperatures near average in the low 90s.
The Tropics: After a busy week, the Eastern Pacific has quieted down. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Basin remains (fingers-crossed) a hostile environment for tropical cyclone formation. Only one non-tropical low pressure area exists in the north central Atlantic Ocean and this will drift east over the next 5 days with just a 40 percent chance of development. This minor disturbance is not a threat to land.
A weak subsidence high aloft coinciding with a surface based Bermuda high pressure should offer lower than normal rain coverage through Tuesday. With summer heat and humidity, isolated shower and thunderstorm development is still possible near subtle boundaries due to the gulf breeze. Temperatures will be a tick or two above normal. A trough will begin to break down the ridge and develop a weak front north of the region on Wednesday. Some convection along the boundary may advance southward and possibly augment the sea breeze activity Thursday and Friday. The trough will broaden and sustain through at least Saturday to place the area in favorable position for continued showers and thunderstorms, possibly even at night. Expect increased areal coverage during the daytime hours, possibly lingering into the evenings. Temperatures will trend down a few degrees due to extensive cloud cover and rain cooling. There is a model disagreement as to the 500mb pattern Sunday into Monday. The GFS model builds a ridge back over the area, which would lead to a drier, warmer pattern. The ECMWF model keeps the trough in place and therefore a status quo forecast.
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