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Entering another active pattern

4 months 2 weeks 1 day ago Monday, May 31 2021 May 31, 2021 May 31, 2021 4:45 PM May 31, 2021 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

After a stretch of dry and pleasant weather, showers and thunderstorms will return to the Capital Area. Humidity will climb as well.

Next 24 Hours: One more mainly clear and somewhat pleasant night is ahead. Low temperatures will stop in the middle, rather than lower, 60s as winds shift to the southeast at 5-10mph. High temperatures will hit the upper 80s on Tuesday in response to early sunshine. However, as that peak daytime warming is achieved, showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop west of the Mississippi River first and then migrate eastward before diminishing into the evening. Any storms could contain gusty wind, frequent lightning and downpours. Area wide rain coverage should be around 40 percent.   


It has been a while since we talked about rain coverage—the percentages on the forecast board often seen during the warm season. Here is a quick reminder about what those mean for the WBRZ Weather 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area.

10-30% - Isolated: a few locations receive measurable rain

30-60% - Scattered: part to half of the area receives measurable rain

60-100% - Widespread: almost all of the area receives measurable rain 

Keep in mind, those chances tell nothing about timing. For instance, 100% DOES NOT mean it will rain all day. We will be sure to provide information in our forecasts as to when you can expect rain when chances are on the board. MORE: https://www.wbrz.com/news/a-chance-to-remember


Up Next: An active pattern will ensue through the week and into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are on the forecast board each day. Daily coverage may vary between 50 and 80 percent and afternoons should be the most active times though nights may not be exclusively dry. Some of the finer details will be best pointed out from day to day. Through Monday, about 2-4 inches of rain is expected across the area but a locally higher total could occur if some spots are repeatedly hit with heavier thunderstorms. Temperatures will be rather consistent with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s.  CLICK HERE for your full 7-Day Forecast.

The Tropics: There are currently no areas of interest in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or Atlantic Ocean. No tropical development is expected over the next five days. Be sure to visit the WBRZ Hurricane Center as we prepare for 183 Days of Hurricane Season, which begins Tuesday.

The Explanation: The weather pattern will transition into an active regime on Tuesday. An upper level trough will anchor across the middle of the country. Locally, the atmosphere will respond by cooling and becoming more unstable. Coupled with increasing moisture at the surface and ample heating, as is expected in June, and convection will have no problem developing each day. Initially, rain coverage may only be isolated to widely scattered west of I-55 on Tuesday but as the trough crawls eastward through the week, scattered coverage is expected each day with the potentially for a few days to have widespread rain. While wind shear is often limited as we move into the warm season, very high instability and moisture can result in downpours and gusty wind so those hazards are possible with any stronger thunderstorms over the next week. While the center of the upper level trough may cross the region on Thursday, the active pattern may not necessarily ease, as generally cooler and more unstable air will linger in the region through the weekend.      

--Josh

The WBRZ Weather Team is here for you, on every platform. Your weather updates can be found on News 2, wbrz.com, and the WBRZ WX App on your Apple or Android device. Follow WBRZ Weather on Facebook and Twitter for even more weather updates while you are on the go.

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