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Cold front pegged for Memorial Day Weekend

4 months 2 weeks 6 days ago Wednesday, May 26 2021 May 26, 2021 May 26, 2021 4:59 PM May 26, 2021 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

The shower search will yield little over the next few days. Then, a cold front will reach the area as we begin Memorial Day Weekend.

Next 24 Hours: Any stray showers or lingering clouds will slowly diminish overnight. Low temperatures will steady in the upper 60s, though some low 70s are possible too. While there has not been much rain to find over the last few days, that bleak coverage should tick even lower Thursday (not that anyone is complaining after last week). With plenty of sunshine, highs will charge into the upper 80s and some 90s are certainly within reach.

Up Next: Friday is expected to be mainly dry and seasonably warm with lows in the upper 60s and highs in the upper 80s. Heading into the Memorial Day Weekend, there is confidence that a cold front will move into the region on Saturday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Especially late in the day, this could affect some outdoor plans. Any storms could bring brief downpours and gusty wind. Current indications are that the front will sneak through the area and enter the northern Gulf of Mexico. This would result in a drier and comfortable Sunday and Monday. With low humidity, lows will be in the mid 60s with highs in the mid 80s.  CLICK HERE for your full 7-Day Forecast.

The Tropics: There are currently no areas of interest in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or Atlantic Ocean. No tropical development is expected over the next five days. Be sure to visit the WBRZ Hurricane Center as we prepare for 183 Days of Hurricane Season.

The Explanation: A brief period of ridging aloft will provide a warmer, sinking air mass on Thursday with very limited coverage in convection—showers and thunderstorms. On Friday the ridge will move east in favor of an upper level trough digging southeastward from the Midwest. At the surface, an accompanying cold front is expected to move from the Midwest toward the Gulf Coast. Well ahead of these features, a weak disturbance ahead of the trough and front could instigate some isolated showers and thunderstorms on Friday afternoon. It is still possible that a squall line along the front in the Midwest races southeastward reaching a part of our area on Friday afternoon but there is not currently any forecast model guidance to support that idea. As the trough and front properly move into the area on Saturday, a more organized squall of showers and thunderstorms will develop and push across the region. The most likely time period for activity will be Saturday afternoon and evening. There should be enough heat energy in the atmosphere and moisture that any thunderstorms could briefly become strong with downpours and gusty wind. Guidance has come into much better agreement that the front will actually pass through the area by Sunday allowing for drier conditions and some reduction in dew points, i.e. humidity through Memorial Day.   

--Josh

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