Clouds will continue to increase overnight as a storm system moves from the western Gulf of Mexico to the southwest Louisiana Coast. As the associated warm front moves across the area, showers will increase, especially after midnight. An area of low pressure will move across south Louisiana on Thursday morning with widespread, possibly heavy rain. While some thunder is possible, the threat for severe storms is minimal. Precipitation will taper to just scattered showers on Thursday afternoon, eventually ending on Thursday night. Clear, seasonable weather is then expected through the weekend.

Precipitation:

rain, embedded thunderstorms

Confidence: HIGH

Timeline:

Through 3am – increasing coverage of showers

3am to 10am – widespread rain and thunderstorms, some heavy

10am to 8pm – scattered showers

Confidence: MEDIUM

Impacts:

1-2 inches of rain could cause nuisance flooding (streets, poor drainage) in isolated areas

wet, slick roads likely for the morning commute

wet, slick roads possible for the afternoon commute

Confidence: HIGH

Actions:

do not drive across flooded roads

allow some extra drive time

check the WBRZ WX App. for latest local conditions and radar

Weather Discussion:

A surface low pressure system will slowly strengthen as it moves from the Texas Coast to southwest Louisiana by Thursday morning, and then across the local area to coastal Mississippi by Thursday night. The warm front will extend east of the surface low with the cold front extending to the southwest.

Overnight, the warm front will push north across the Louisiana Coast and should be along the I-10 corridor by morning allowing scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms to overspread the entire area. While wind shear will be in place, instability will be limited so severe weather is not expected. However, as we have seen in the past, high shear and low instability environments are capable of spinning up an isolated tornado. The greatest chance for a rotating storm would be in areas south of the warm front, such as coastal parishes. The main concern north of the warm front will be widespread, possibly heavy rain. Forecast model guidance is in good agreement that a general 1 to 2 inches will fall across the area with localized amounts as high as 3 inches. Rainfall has been modest lately so only brief, nuisance flooding seems possible. The low will move into Mississippi on Thursday night, ending rain from west to east. A low level trough will pass over the area and the associated pocket of cool air trapped beneath some warmer air further up will lead to overcast skies staying in place through early Friday. Temperatures will stay in the mid 50s as a result. As sun returns Friday afternoon, highs will near 70 degrees. Drier air through the atmosphere will lead to a mainly clear weekend with seasonable temperatures. A deeper trough will dig into the southeastern U.S. on Sunday night sending a fast moving frontal system through the region. Since moisture will never really return, this front is expected to pass by dry.

Behind that front, dry conditions will stay in place through Halloween. The coolest conditions behind that front will occur Monday and Tuesday nights as lows dip into the upper 40s. Highs may moderate back to 80 degrees Wednesday and Thursday before the next strong storm system moves through our area.

--Dr. Josh

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