The weather pattern will go through a subtle transition on Thursday. While showers and thunderstorms stay in the forecast, they will not be as widespread as previous days.

Next 24 Hours: Any rain will continue to taper into the evening hours. Skies will gradually clear overnight with low temperatures dipping into the mid 70s. Early sunshine on Thursday will send high temperatures into the low 90s. A few showers and thunderstorms will pop during the afternoon hours, but not quite as many locations will receive rain as the last few afternoons—measurable rain is expected for about 30 percent of the 13 parish, 3 county forecast area.

Up Next: Friday and Saturday will trend a bit quieter with regard to rain coverage. Though one or two pop-up showers and thunderstorms will be possible, many areas will stay dry. As far as temperatures go, highs will be in the low to mid 90s and lows will be in the mid 70s. A stalling front will move into the region Sunday into next week. That system will be responsible for another stretch of busier weather. Daily showers and thunderstorms will occur in most locations and the active weather could keep highs a few clicks below average. However, a full frontal passage and temperatures that are more comfortable are not in the cards. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

The Tropics: For the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean, there are no active tropical systems. No development is expected over the next five days.

The Explanation: An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to meander over the southeastern half of the country over the next few days. With very deep, tropical moisture in place, this trough has been enough to trigger scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms--some of which have been heavy. By the end of the week, the trough will drift to the west while atmospheric moisture subsides just a bit. With that, daily, areal rain coverage will fall back into the isolated category at 20-40 percent, but daytime warming will be more than enough to keep a few showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Any of them will be capable of downpours and localized poor drainage flooding. The gradual downward trend in coverage and later onset of convection will allow high temperatures to max out a degree or two higher each day through Saturday. An upper level trough of low pressure will slide down the eastern side of the upper level ridge on Sunday sending a weakening cold front toward the region from the northeast. That scenario is a bit unusual for the Gulf Coast in July so there is no reason to expect cooler or less humid conditions. Rather, the decaying front will stall in the region and serve as a focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms Sunday well into next week. Once again, some of the thunderstorms could produce heavy rain and localized flooding.

--Josh

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