Wednesday PM Forecast: June, hurricane season begin as you might expect
It is the first day of meteorological summer and hurricane season. The Storm Station is watching a continuing pattern of pop-up afternoon showers and thunderstorms and two disturbances in the tropics.
Next 24 Hours: Any showers and thunderstorms will diminish with time into the evening hours. Beneath mostly clear skies, low temperatures will stop in the low 70s. On Thursday, high temperatures will tap into some early sunshine to climb into the low 90s. While a few showers and thunderstorms are expected to pop, coverage may actually be higher later in the day—such as the evening hours—as a weak front moves into the area.
Up Next: The front will diminish across the region on Friday and Saturday but still have enough of a presence to spark isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be typical of the time of year with highs in the low 90s and lows in the low 70s. Early next week, the upper level pattern may change just enough to reduce the afternoon activity and make showers very scarce. However, the tradeoff to drier afternoons in June is much higher heat, and some thermometers could top out in the mid 90s Monday through Wednesday. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.
The Tropics: A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Despite strong upper-level winds, gradual development is forecast and there is an 80 percent chance that this system becomes a tropical depression while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. It does not pose a threat to the local area.
A weak surface trough located about 150 miles northeast of the northwest Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity. Surface pressures are currently high across the area, and significant development of this system appears unlikely as it moves generally east-northeastward over the next several days away from the southeastern United States.
The Explanation: An upper level trough of low pressure will slowly move across the region through the end of the workweek dragging a weakening cold front to the central Gulf Coast with it. While deeper moisture may diminish over the coming days, this will be overcome by lift created by the axis of the upper level trough and front. With daytime warming, showers and thunderstorms will be able to pop. Actually, the lacking moisture in the mid-levels could serve to cause some storms to produce gusty winds via downbursts. By the weekend, zonal (west to east) wind flow aloft will be in place with a typical summertime pattern expected. So, as high temperatures reach the low 90s, a few midday to early evening showers or thunderstorms will be possible. Next week, a weak upper level ridge will attempt to extend over the Southern U.S. and tamp down the precipitation. Should that occur, we can expect more daytime warming and with a general sinking motion in the atmosphere--some warmer temperatures with highs in the mid 90s.
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