Warming trend, chance of strong storms
A moderating trend in temperatures is underway. By the end of the week, highs will flirt with 90 degrees. Expect one chance at showers and storms before that.
Today and Tonight: Another nice one is on tap for Tuesday. Under sunny skies, high temperatures will top out in the lower 80s with winds turning southeasterly late. The night will stay tranquil with mainly clear skies, lows in the low 60s and light, southeast winds.
Up Next: A couple of high clouds will begin to push in Wednesday as thermometers continue a slow moderating trend into the mid 80s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight into Thursday and it is possible that some of those are strong. Gusty wind will be the primary threat with the best chance for a strong storm north and west of Baton Rouge. Because this will be a nighttime event, here’s the reminder to have access to alerts while asleep. Changes beyond the cold front will not result in any kind of cool down, in fact, warmer and more humid conditions are ahead for Thursday, Friday and Saturday. After summer-like mornings in the 70s, afternoon highs will flirt with 90 degrees. The next chance for rain will come during the second half of the weekend.
THE SCIENCE: A trough and associated cold front will move into the area on Wednesday night. As of now, a slightly negative tilt, moderate instability and some shear would suggest the possibility of a few stronger thunderstorms. Parameter should link up and peak right around midnight in the north central portion of the forecast area on a corridor from Baton Rouge to McComb. Precipitation is expected primarily during the overnight hours, ending on Thursday morning. On the other side of the front, winds will quickly shift back to the south meaning no sensible cool down is expected. In fact, warmth and humidity will increase for the end of the week with some locations approaching 90 degrees on Friday and Saturday. The next trough will take shape in the Four Corners region over the weekend. This one is expected to dig deeper but also to be less progressive. At this point, the setup would suggest a squall developing ahead of the front in response to mid-level energy rotating through the trough. It is a bit early to assess specific details but this will be a scenario worth monitoring for severe weather.