A broad surface high will maintain quiet weather through Thursday. We will watch the weekend for our next chance at rain.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Your Wednesday will be another beaut’ with ample sun and blue sky. Light, easterly winds will result in temperatures climbing just above 70 degrees. The nighttime will stay clear but do not anticipate temperatures to be quite as chilly, sticking in the upper 40s.  

Up Next:  Surface high pressure will maintain dry conditions through Thursday with a gradual warming trend continuing. By Friday, thermometers will climb above average as clouds build back into the region due to onshore flow. Temperatures will break into the upper 70s and possibly lower 80s on Saturday before a cold front arrives. This front will be responsible for thickening clouds as well as some showers and thunderstorms—especially late Saturday into Sunday. What happens next is a bit tricky, but the going idea is for cool temperatures to push in while clouds and possibly some stray showers stick around into next week.

With spring beginning, we get the unfriendly, sneezing reminder that pollen season is upon us. You can get an updated allergy report each weekday morning on 2une In and every day from the WBRZ Weather Facebook and Twitter pages.

The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, major flood stage continues with a level of 43.5’ as of Wednesday morning. Peaking at 44.1’ on March 19, the river set its 7th highest recorded crest at Baton Rouge. In addition, at 82 days this is now the 4th longest period above flood stage. Due to river flooding and drainage north of the area, runoff will keep the river high for many days to come. The high water is primarily an issue for river traffic and river islands, although some inundation will continue unprotected low-lying areas. Agricultural operations will be impacted on the west side of the river. The grounds of the older part of Louisiana State University's campus become soggy. This includes the area around the Veterinary Medicine building, the Veterinary Medicine Annex, the stadium and ball fields. The city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus are protected by levees up to 47 feet. Some seepage may be noted due to the long duration of high water placing pressure on the levees. Water from the extensive Missouri River flooding across the Upper Midwest will not reach Baton Rouge until April and the Mississippi River is expected to have fallen some by that time. As some of the Mississippi River diverts into the Atchafalaya River, gauges at Krotz Springs and Morgan City will stay high as well. Like Big Muddy, this is expected to be a prolonged event but is not uncommon for the time of year. Read more HERE. 

THE EXPLANATION:

The jet stream will be zonal, that is west to east, over the next two days and dictating a quiet weather pattern. A broad surface ridge of high pressure centered over the Carolinas will result in sunny afternoons and clear nights through Thursday. Some upper level moisture will return the cirrus clouds, indicative of our next pattern change leading into the weekend. At the same time, the surface ridge will slowly push northeast pulling onshore flow over the Central Gulf Coast and allowing temperature moderation as dew points gradually nudge into the 50s. A shortwave trough will race across the Midwest with an attendant cold front pushing across Texas on Saturday morning and into Louisiana by the evening. Forecast models bring showers and thunderstorms into the area late Saturday and into Sunday morning. At this time, confidence decreases as the front pushes through the area. The European model is showing a deepening trough over the region and a stalling front in the northern Gulf. This would lead to a period of cloudy skies, occasional showers and temperatures that are perhaps 10 degrees below average into early next week. The American model is a little less aggressive with the trough, but does show the stalling front. The difference in this solution is less shower activity beyond the frontal passage and temperatures that are only 3 to 5 degrees below average.   

--Josh

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