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Warm temps, minimal rain chances into early next week

1 year 3 weeks 6 days ago Thursday, September 26 2019 Sep 26, 2019 September 26, 2019 6:06 AM September 26, 2019 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Not only will the month round out with above average temperatures, but most locations will remain rain free. To date, the area is running a deficit for the month, precisely 1.29 inches shy of normal at Metro Airport. To stay green, most lawns need about 1-2 inches of water per week, so the sprinkler systems may need some work.   

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Lots of sunshine will send high temperatures back into the 90s. That will make 108 days this calendar year exceeding 90 degrees, above the average number of days to reach that mark in a given year. A drier air mass will maintain tolerable humidity levels. Overnight low temperatures will fall into the low 70s.  

Up Next: An upper level ridge of high pressure will try to slide east by Friday. In doing so, southeasterly winds will transport a bit of moisture inland and this could be just enough for isolated showers to develop Friday and Saturday afternoon. However, coverage will be quite low. Warm temperatures will continue. The Climate Prediction Center outlook into early October offers little hope for significant cooling. The entire Southeast U.S. has a high likelihood of experiencing above average temperatures.  

The Tropics: Tropical Storm Karen will meander over the central Atlantic between Bermuda and Puerto Rico over the next several days. An upper level ridge over the Eastern U.S. is expected to broaden and drift eastward changing the upper level steering winds to the west or southwest. Therefore, early next week, Tropical Storm Karen will begin to loop back across its previous path. Stationary until this move, a prolonged period over churned up water it has created will make strengthening difficult. The storm may not even hold together, but should not be much more than a depression as it drifts west, southwest toward the Bahamas by the middle of next week. Right now, it does not appear to be a major threat. West of the Cabo Verde Islands, Lorenzo is set to become a major hurricane. Fortunately, this system does not pose any imminent threat to land and will eventually turn north and stay out to sea.

THE EXPLANATION:

The upper level ridge and surface area of high pressure remains stacked across the Southeast. This is why the pattern has been and will remain warm and dry. The ridge may slide just far enough to the east on Friday and Saturday that a bit of onshore flow will provide some moisture for a spotty shower. Anybody that gets rain will be lucky. The ridge will likely strengthen over the local area early next week leading to more hot temperatures and dry conditions. If this ridge were in place during July or August, it would most certainly lead to heat advisories. However, thanks to the lowering sun angle as we move into “fall,” the heat is somewhat less intense.

--Josh

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