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Tuesday PM Forecast: front to bring big changes by weekend

2 years 7 months 1 week ago Tuesday, October 12 2021 Oct 12, 2021 October 12, 2021 4:41 PM October 12, 2021 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

The weather pattern will remain stale—warm and humid until a cold front arrives by the end of the week. Much more fall-like temperatures are expected beyond.

Next 24 Hours: The nighttime hours will be quiet, mostly clear and muggy with low temperatures in the low 70s. Not much new is coming on Wednesday with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 80s.

Up Next: Thursday will bring more of the same. Skies will remain mostly clear with just a stray, light, afternoon shower possible. Warm and sticky conditions will prevail with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. Another warm afternoon is on tap for Friday before a cold front works into the region. This system could stir up some showers and thunderstorms and the currently anticipated timing suggests those with evening high school football plans should stay in touch. Rain will end from west to east by daybreak Saturday as the front exits. Northerly winds will push away any sensible humidity and highs will then stay in the 70s for a few days. Overnight lows will be in the 50s Sunday through Tuesday. CLICK HERE for your full 7-Day Forecast.

The Tropics: A tropical wave south of Hispaniola has a 10 percent chance of gradual development as it nears the Bahamas later this week. After that, it will interact with a front halting additional development chances. For the latest tropical forecasts, advisories and information, visit the WBRZ Hurricane Center as we navigate all 183 Days of Hurricane Season.

The Explanation: A weak front will stall and dissipate north of the local area on Tuesday. Given this, no major changes are expected to surface conditions with above average temperatures and humidity for the time of year. In the upper levels, the main feature for the central Gulf Coast will be a ridge pinched between a trough off the East Coast and a deepening upper level trough over the Mountain West. Subsidence associated with the ridge will provide a few more days of mainly dry weather with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the low 70s. The upper level trough out west will begin the break east with an associated surface storm system by Thursday. Tropical Storm Pamela, moving inland across Mexico, will help to deepen the upper level trough and break down the ridge over the local area. A little bit of upper level moisture straying east away from Pamela could create some high clouds Wednesday and perhaps draw down enough moisture for a spotty shower on Thursday. More importantly, these features will ensure that the upper level cold pool is deep enough to push a cold front through the local area Friday into Saturday. Days of southerly flow should leave enough moisture established for the front to create a broken line of showers and thunderstorms late Friday. Ingredients will not be favorable for severe weather or heavy rain. Since the boundary will be progressive, there will likely only be about a 6-12 hour window for precipitation. Behind the front, northerly winds will send moisture out of the area and temperatures below average. Expect highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the low to mid 50s.       


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