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***TORNADO WATCH*** until 7am, forecast and more details

1 year 1 month 4 days ago Wednesday, October 31 2018 Oct 31, 2018 October 31, 2018 7:49 PM October 31, 2018 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

The National Weather Service has issued a TORNADO WATCH for East Baton Rouge, West Baton Rouge, Ascension, Assumption, Iberville, East Feliciana, Livingston, Pointe Coupee, St. Helena, St. James, St. Mary Tangipahoa and West Feliciana Parishes as well as,Amite, Pike and Wilkinson Counties until 7:00 a.m. Thursday. 

This includes the cities of Centreville, Dolorosa, Fort Adams, Lettsworth, Livonia, New Roads, Spillman, St. Francisville, Wakefield, and Woodville.

A TORNADO WATCH means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and/or damaging winds in and around the watch area. Be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. If a tornado warning is issued, seek shelter in a low-level, interior room of a sturdy building. For more on tornadoes and how to stay safe, CLICK HERE.

Remember: a watch means “conditions are favorable, and a particular threat could develop” and a warning means that “threat is happening and you should take action immediately.” In a tornado warning, seek shelter in a low-level interior room and avoid mobile homes is possible. In a severe thunderstorm warning, get inside of any sturdy structure.

Forecast: Thunderstorms may develop ahead of an approaching squall line during the early hours of Thursday morning. These storm cells ahead of the line will have no problem rotating and could produce a tornado. Later, the squall line will quickly push across the area. The leading edge of the squall line is the most likely area to contain damaging wind gusts and possibly embedded tornadoes. Heavy rain will follow and could lead to areal flooding. The severe weather threat will be over soon after sunrise.

Precipitation:

strong thunderstorms, heavy rain

Confidence: HIGH

Timeline:

Through 2am – scattered showers and thunderstorms

2am to 8am – strong squall line crossing area from west to east

8am to 4pm – clouds and scattered showers

Confidence: MEDIUM

Impacts:

strong winds, tornadoes could cause damage to trees, powerlines and weaker structures 

1-3 inches of rain could cause areas of poor drainage and roads to flood

areas of debris, high water for morning commute

Confidence: MEDIUM

Actions:

secure Halloween decorations, loose outdoor objects (patio furniture, trash cans)

activate NOAA Weather Radio or download WBRZ WX App to have access to alerts/information

do not drive across flooded roads

Explanation: An approaching upper level trough will take on a neutral to negative tilt resulting in strong forcing in the atmosphere and a deepening surface low north of the area. Winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are particularly impressive and creating a very favorable wind shear environment for rotating storm cells. Instability is lacking somewhat for a large scale tornado event, but certainly sufficient for a few to develop. Other severe weather indices suggest the ingredients are in place—especially for thunderstorms that develop ahead of the main squall line associated with the cold front. However, even as the squall line approaches, shear will remain high enough for a quick spin-up tornado. Intense squall lines tend to speed up as they progress meaning arrival times could potentially be near the earlier side of the forecast timeframe. This would also mean a ramp up of the damaging, straight-line wind threat. Finally, the potential for heavy rain remains impressive. While the system will be a fast-mover, atmospheric moisture is about maximized and forecast models indicate very heavy totals over a short period of time. 1-3 inches of rain could lead to localized flash flooding.

Be sure to have the free WBRZ WX App on your Apple or Android device. You can still have your phone on silent but can set the WBRZ WX App to override silent mode so you can receive warnings. CLICK HERE for an informational video on how to customize the app to send only the alerts that you care to receive. Never rely on an outdoor warning siren; if that is your main way of hearing warnings, you have little hope of hearing them indoors.

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