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Thursday PM Forecast: workweek to end with moderate rain chances

3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago Thursday, July 21 2022 Jul 21, 2022 July 21, 2022 4:10 PM July 21, 2022 in Forecast Discussion
Source: WBRZ Weather

At least a one-day break in the heat advisory is expected as the workweek ends. Some clouds, as well as scattered showers and thunderstorms, will keep the feels-like temperatures from spending too much time in the 100s.

Next 24 Hours: Typically, in the summer, the overnight period brings quiet weather. However, a weak surface trough of low pressure dropping in from the north may help to spark a couple of showers and thunderstorms. Low temperatures will be in the upper 70s. High temperatures will return to the 90s on Friday as a bit of sun appears by late morning and early afternoon. Despite any morning clouds and showers, the atmosphere should be able to recharge enough for scattered thunderstorms to develop during the second half of the day.

Up Next: Over the weekend, the upper level ridge of high pressure will firmly overtake the region and lead to hot, humid days with low coverage in any showers or thunderstorms. With high temperatures in the mid 90s and plenty of humidity, heat advisories may continue to be issued. Do not expect relief at night, either as low temperature barely fall out of the 80s. Early next week, increasing moisture should return the typical, isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A few of these could be heavy enough to cause some localized street and poor drainage flooding. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next five days.  

The Explanation: A weakening front, more like a surface trough of low pressure, will slip southward into the area overnight and into Friday. With ample summer heat and humidity, it does not take much to instigate showers and thunderstorms so this feature should be able to do that as the workweek ends. Some high resolution models sniff out an organized cluster forming and dropping south through the area Thursday night into Friday morning, but that is not a certainty. Added clouds and rain coverage on Friday will forego the need for a heat advisory. An expansive ridge of high pressure will overtake the Southeast U.S. this weekend. Since surface winds will be driven by a high pressure off to the east, southerly flow will keep high dew points (abundant humidity) in place. While the downward motions of a ridge make it difficult for convection to develop, the high moisture supply may be able to overcome this at times. The result will be a continuation of the typical summer pattern with daytime warming and marine breezes popping isolated, afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Due to drier upper level air created by the ridge, any thunderstorm could cause gusty wind in addition to downpours and frequent lightning. Unwavering and unexciting, this general pattern will persist into early next week.  

--Josh

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