Stalled system to bring locally heavy rain through next weekend
A wet weather pattern is setting up this week and will peak in activity on Wednesday. The jet stream is rather strong, which will help to push the bulk of the moisture into central Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. This area to our northeast is expected to pick up 8-11 inches through the week. However, some isolated heavy amounts could occur locally as well.
Today and Tonight: On the cool side of a front, expect near normal temperatures in the low to mid 50s as north winds of 10-15mph continue. The front is far enough south that rain coverage will be minimal, save for a few sprinkles, mainly south of I-10. Some sun is possible early, especially north of I-10. The front will be working back to the north overnight with thickening clouds and a few showers. Lows will be in the low 50s.
Up Next: Conditions will continue to degrade Tuesday. An upper level trough will push into the western Gulf, and will push moisture onshore from our southwest to northeast.
Locally, heavy rain and storm activity will pick up Tuesday night through Thursday, and associated instability and wind shear could even allow a few strong thunderstorms to develop. Within southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, rain amounts are likely to be in the 3 to 5 inch range. Temperatures will warm above average as the frontal system stalls across the area. Next Saturday appears to be the earliest time at which the front and active weather may finally exit eastward.
With a cold front well south into the Gulf of Mexico, some light rain or sprinkles may occur today—especially south of I-10—but will not amount to much. A surface low pressure will then develop along the tail end of the front and pull the boundary back to the north as a warm front. An associated cold front will trail this system. However, the entire complex will essentially stall over the central Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, in the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deep southwest to northeast jet stream will provide a steady stream of moisture over this boundary will occasional disturbances kicking our more distinct rounds of rain. These scenarios can lead to some heavy rain and currently expect that to be the case just north and east of the Baton Rouge area. Locally, there will be a pretty sharp gradient in rain amounts, heaviest in southwest Mississippi and lowest near the coast. One week totals of 3 to 5 inches are possible where the heaviest action occurs with 1 to 3 inches over areas south of I-10. Additionally, as the line of rain and thunderstorms pushes over the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, some instability and shear will be supportive of thunderstorms with gusty wind and possibly a tornado. The Storm Prediction Center have placed the region under a 1 out of 5 marginal risk for severe weather Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front could make it through the area Sunday but models do not agree with moving it through clean.
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