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Showers and storms more numerous this afternoon

1 month 1 week 2 days ago Wednesday, August 12 2020 Aug 12, 2020 August 12, 2020 6:05 AM August 12, 2020 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Afternoon showers today will be more numerous. 

THE FORECAST: 

Today and Tonight: Showers and storms for this afternoon will need the energy from the sun to get up and running. Before anything pops up temperatures will heat into the low 90s topping out near 94. Once the rain starts to fall, it will cool things down. The storms today could pack a punch with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and a heavy downpour. There were a few flood advisories along the Gulf Coast yesterday, and that is not out of the question for today. Storms will not be in everyone’s backyard, and if you stay dry all day, expect heat index values near 100 degrees. Shower and storm activity will clear out overnight with temperatures getting down to near 77. 

Up Next: Moisture continues to build up in our area. Thursday and Friday will be much wetter than the first half of the week. Thursday showers are likely to start in the late morning and stay around all day (expect on and off rain all day). Friday will be active in the afternoon. Rain will keep temperatures down to near 91, but overnight won’t be as cool with temperatures near 77. 

 

The Tropics: The tropical wave we have been tracking all week formed into Tropical Depression Eleven yesterday afternoon. The system is a small complex of storms with a defined center of circulation. It is forecast to move west-northwest, but it is not expected to impact our local forecast. The latest forecast cone here.

From the National Hurricane Center: 

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 42.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A motion toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is forecast to begin tonight and continue through the rest of the week. 

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). 

THE EXPLANATION:

Showers and storms will need daytime heating to bubble up this week. Outflow boundaries will be a good indicator of where storms will form in the afternoon and evening. Moisture levels will continue to increase with the persistent southerly flow. Thursday and Friday will have the highest PWAT values and likely the most rain coverage this week. 

-Marisa

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