THE FORECAST:

Tonight and Tomorrow: Showers will continue to taper off and exit our area to the north and west tonight. We will continue to experience dry conditions through the overnight period and into Monday, as temperatures drop to an overnight low of 72°. Winds will stay relatively calm out of the south into Monday morning. Scattered showers and storms will again develop around 11 AM, with activity poised to peak between 2 PM and 6 PM around the Capital Area. Localized flooding is possible with these storms, as they could produce heavy downpours and may be moving rather slow from the south. Conditions will also be warm as temperatures reach a high of 89° with heat index values peaking near 98°.

Up Next:  Scattered afternoon showers and storm will stick around into the beginning part of the workweek, before turning more isolated starting Thursday.

The Tropics: A persistent area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward across the north-central Caribbean Sea during the next few days, producing locally heavy rainfall and possibly some flooding across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Little development of the disturbance is expected due to the interaction with land. However, the system is forecast to emerge over the Straits of Florida by the end of the week where environmental conditions could be a little more conducive for development to occur. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 10% chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours, and a 20% chance of development within the next 5 days.

THE EXPLANATION:

A weak high pressure has developed in the northern Gulf over the last 24 hours, which will work together with an approaching fragmented cold front from the northwest to continue afternoon scattered storm activity through Southern Louisiana into the start of the workweek. The high pressure will supply the moisture from the Gulf and push it onshore, as the front will push more instability in and allow for vertical development of storms to be rather efficient. This weather pattern stays through Tuesday before the front dissipates. The high pressure in the Gulf should weaken, but stay intact enough to keep spotty to isolated showers in the forecast starting Thursday. Southerly winds will also confine dewpoints in the mid-70s through the next several days, keeping humidity in the area and heat index values in the mid-to-upper 90s. A weak mid-level low pressure system will break off of the fragmented front that pushed through and stalled earlier in the week. This low will push into the northern Gulf of Mexico late Friday and into Saturday, bringing a return of scattered storms across our area for the start of the weekend.

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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