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Rainy Thursday prior to stretch of nice weather

1 month 2 weeks 4 days ago Thursday, February 20 2020 Feb 20, 2020 February 20, 2020 5:42 AM February 20, 2020 in News
Source: WBRZ Weather

One final gray day is expected before more pleasant conditions. Get the jackets ready for some chilly mornings.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Thursday will not be a nice day. Clouds and rain will persist, especially early, with temperatures steady in the low to mid 50s. Precipitation will end around nightfall with gradual clearing overnight. That, along with north winds, will send low temperatures into the mid to upper 30s.

Up Next: Despite a sunny Friday afternoon, high temperatures will fail to reach 60 degrees.  The weekend will start cold with low temperatures flirting with freezing. Cool and quiet conditions will continue through the weekend.

The forecast looks excellent for the Spanishtown Mardi Gras parade, rolling Saturday at noon. The next fast-moving disturbance will swing into the area on Monday with a few showers and thunderstorms possible into early Tuesday.

THE EXPLANATION:

A shortwave trough of low pressure will swing through the Mid-South Thursday. This will initiate southwest winds aloft and setup an overrunning scenario with the stalled front in the northern Gulf. Widespread, mainly light rain is expected Thursday as northerly winds hold temperatures in the low 50s. By Friday, the shortwave trough will exit east, therefore flushing moisture from the region. With clear skies and light northeast winds, thermometers will slide into the 30s. Cold air will remain in place Friday and Friday night with highs only in the low to mid 50s and lows near the freezing mark north of I-12 on Saturday morning. A slow warming trend will return with an upper level trough moving into the Midwest on Sunday. Clouds will increase initially with showers and thunderstorms possible as early as Sunday night. Depending on the forecast model of choice, there is some potential for strong thunderstorms Monday for locations north of the Louisiana/Mississippi border. The European Model is the more aggressive of the two long range models. A front will sweep through the area on Monday night. Due to another fast moving frontal system, there is low confidence in the forecast for Mardi Gras and beyond with regard to rain. However, at this time, below average temperatures appear likely for the second half of next week.   

--Josh

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