Rain and storms ramp up on Wednesday
A wet weather pattern will take hold for the better part of the next 7 days. Especially Wednesday, rain could fall heavily at times and there is even a marginal risk for severe weather.
Today and Tonight: Conditions will slowly degrade on Tuesday. Expect lots of cloud cover and scattered showers to increase in coverage especially late in the day, mainly after dark. Much of the day may be dry with just dodgy showers. Thanks to a warm front lifting north through the region, winds will shift to the southeast and temperatures will climb into the mid 60s. Overnight, thermometers will continue to climb, up to about 70 degrees. An area of low pressure and trailing cold front will move over the region with rain and thunderstorms increasing into Wednesday morning.
Up Next: There may be enough instability and wind shear to allow a few strong thunderstorms to develop on Wednesday. Gusty wind would be the main threat but an isolated tornado is also possible. Most of the accumulated rain in our forecast will come on Wednesday with 1-3 inches possible. As usual, where any persistent storms set up, there could be an isolated higher amount. Showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast right into the weekend. There will be breaks in the action, but beyond Wednesday, this is a difficult timing forecast. Within southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, total rain amounts are likely to be in the 2 to 4 inch range by Sunday. Temperatures will stay above average, as a cold front will not fully clear the area.
A surface low pressure will develop along the tail end of a stalled cold front in the central Gulf of Mexico and pull the boundary back to the north as a warm front. An associated cold front will then trail this system. The cold front will stall over the central Gulf Coast through Thursday. Meanwhile, in the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deep southwest to northeast jet stream will provide a steady stream of moisture over this boundary will occasional disturbances kicking out more distinct rounds of rain. These scenarios can lead to some heavy rain and currently expect that to be the case just north and east of the Baton Rouge area.
Locally, there will be a pretty sharp gradient in rain amounts, heaviest in southwest Mississippi and lowest near the coast. End of week totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible where the heaviest action occurs with 1 to 3 inches over areas south of I-10. Additionally, as the line of rain and thunderstorms pushes over the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, some instability and shear will be supportive of thunderstorms with gusty wind and possibly a tornado. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the region under a 1 out of 5 marginal risk for severe weather Tuesday night and Wednesday. Rain will be on and off through Saturday. The dry periods look to come on Thursday night into a portion of Friday morning and again Sunday. Rain then moves back into the area for the beginning of next week.
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