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More showers possible Friday ahead of weak cold front

1 month 1 week 1 day ago Thursday, October 22 2020 Oct 22, 2020 October 22, 2020 6:14 PM October 22, 2020 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Outside of Hurricane Delta, there has not been much rain during the typically driest month of the year. If you did not receive rain Thursday, it remains a possibility on Friday.  

The Next 24 Hours: Any showers should subside into the evening hours followed by a partly cloudy and muggy night. Low temperatures will stop around 70 degrees. On Friday, a weak cold front will push into the area and grab some Gulf moisture to put out scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most of the activity will occur during the afternoon hours. Expect highs near 85 degrees.

After That: While the front will not change temperatures, it should slightly lower humidity and rain chances over the weekend. Another weak front is expected to push through on Tuesday with some showers. Again, this one will just knock the humidity down a bit. It is possible that a more ornery front could cross before next weekend with some strong thunderstorms.

The Tropics: As of 4pm Thursday, Hurricane Epsilon was due east of Bermuda with maximum sustained winds of 85mph. The storm will continue north and spare the island a direct hit. Epsilon will accelerate northeast and out to sea from there.

A trough of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea has been producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. There is a 20 percent chance of development as the system moves Cuba, the Straits of Florida and the Bahamas through the weekend.

The Explanation: We have relatively high rain chances on tap for Friday as moisture from the Gulf converges with an approaching cold. Even with the high chance to see some rain, most places are only likely to pick up a couple tenths of an inch of rain. An upper level trough will send that weak front, more like a wind shift boundary, through the area on Saturday morning. This should create slightly lower humidity and rain chances. Another cold front may enter the area by about Wednesday of next week but forecast models are struggling to agree on the specifics of this scenario. The American model suggests more of a classic, late-fall pattern involving a strong upper level trough and front leading to strong thunderstorms. The European model stalls the upper trough to the west and brings a weaker push of cool air to the region by the end of next week. As the upper level features enter the western U.S. and begin getting sampled by upper air balloons by the end of this week, the details should become more clear. 

--Josh

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