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Mild ahead of another cold front
To begin a new week—we’ll feel mild temperatures and find partial sunshine. The next shot at showers comes with a cold front on Tuesday Afternoon.
Today and Tonight: Monday will be partly sunny with a high into the mid 70s. Winds will stay out of the south, but be lighter than Sunday, at about 5mph. Overnight will be partly cloudy with some fog development possible toward daybreak. Lows will be in the upper 50s with light, southerly winds.
Moving ahead: Tuesday won’t be entirely overcast, but clouds should increase during the afternoon hours as a cold front approaches. Highs will make it into the mid 70s. Winds will be southwest at 5-10mph. Showers and thunderstorms will become possible in the afternoon. Severe weather is not anticipated. Shower action will ease by midnight with lows back in the upper 40s. Wednesday will be sunny and seasonable with highs in the mid 60s. Thursday and Friday will be partly sunny with highs returning to the low 70s.
THE SCIENCE:
Forecast Discussion: High pressure will be positioned off of the Florida Coast through Tuesday maintaining a southerly flow to the region. Moisture may result in additional clouds once again on Monday Afternoon along with some more fog on Tuesday Morning. AN upper level trough swinging though the Midwest will guide a cold front through the area on Tuesday Evening. This trough will be positively tilted and thus the front will be elongating as it approaches. This typically does not lend to a promising scenario for severe storms. Plus, instability is limited and helicity isn’t impressive. Showers and a few thunderstorms seem to be the likely outcome as this front passes. A surface high then nudges back into place for the remainder of the week. The associated northerly winds at the surface as this high stands in Texas will keep temperatures close to normal. By the end of the week, movement to the east will again establish return flow allowing temperature to moderate back to and above average.
--Josh
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