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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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It's coming and we'll feel some changes

2 years 7 months 4 weeks ago Monday, August 20 2018 Aug 20, 2018 August 20, 2018 5:58 AM August 20, 2018 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Quiet the active pattern has unfolded over the last three days. Many locations received upwards of an inch of rain on Sunday. More of the same is expected early this new week before some appreciable and appreciated changes occur!

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A repeat weather performance will come on Monday, as morning showers will become more robust across the area through the day. Scattered thunderstorms will lead to downpours and frequent lightning for some. Highs will top out around 91 degrees with lows dipping into the upper 70s.

Up Next: An approaching cold front will slowly make its way through Louisiana Tuesday into Wednesday. Until then, significant moisture will keep scattered showers and storms in the forecast through the start of the workweek. The front will actually push into the Gulf of Mexico during the middle of the week therefore swiping away a good deal of moisture. This will lead to much lower rain chances and a noticeable drop in humidity. It is still summer, and dry air actually warms more efficiently than humid air, so afternoons will be just as sweltering but mornings will be a bit more comfortable. Thursday is likely to be the time in which these changes are most evident. Humidity and rain chances will begin to increase Friday.

The Tropics:  As we near the heart of hurricane season, the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are all quiet. No development is expected over the next 5 days.

THE EXPLANATION:

The main ingredient for such high recent convective coverage is deep layer moisture. Precipitable water has been hovering around 2.2 inches, which is in the 90th percentile for this time of year. In the upper levels, a broad trough is set up over the Southeast with a second trough draped over the Rockies. The western trough will deepen digging all the way down to the Gulf Coast. Therefore, rain coverage will remain quiet high with 60-80 percent of the area receiving rain. Storms were fairly progressive on Sunday and should have enough movement on Monday and Tuesday to minimize the flood threat. The threat for heavy rain will be diminishing by Wednesday as the trough shifts east. A secondary reinforcing trough will dig well into the southeastern U.S. on Wednesday & Thursday. This will actually send a weak cold front through the area. The front will bring much drier air and knock down temperatures by a few degrees. Dew points and even morning lows could be dropping into the upper 60s for some locations (mainly I-12 and northward). The drier air warms more readily than our typical humid air though so afternoon highs are likely to be just as warm. Mornings will be a bit more pleasant. This little break will be short-lived with moisture and rain chances returning Friday.

--Dr. Josh

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