After 1-6 inches of rain fell over the area yesterday, a ***Flash Flood Watch*** in effect through 7 pm Tuesday. 

THE FORECAST: 

Today and Tonight: Expect scattered showers and storms during the morning hours that become more widespread in the afternoon. With so many consecutive days of heavy rainfall, flooding is a concern. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through 7 pm this evening. Keep an eye on your local flood-prone areas and never drive on flooded roadways. Parts of Ascension Parish received near 6 inches of rain on Monday and one ill-placed downpour could leave standing water. Between the showers, skies will be mostly cloudy and temperatures will top out near 85 degrees. Overnight lows will be near 75. 

Up Next:  Wednesday will likely start dry and shower activity will grow in the late morning and early afternoon hours. More scattered rain activity will allow the sun to poke through and temperatures to climb to near 88 degrees. By Thursday much of the tropical moisture in our area will move out leaving us with just a few showers and storms possible in the afternoon. Thursday and Friday will offer enough dry time to finish any lawn work and spend time outside. The temperatures will be in the low 90s and overnight lows in the mid-70s. 

The Tropics:

Shower activity associated with a low-pressure area located about 750 miles east of the Windward Islands is gradually increasing in organization. However, recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the circulation remains broad and elongated, and the low does not yet have a well-defined center of circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat more conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and approaches the Leeward Islands. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Leeward Islands on Wednesday and will spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night and Thursday. 

Interests on these islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later today. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

THE EXPLANATION:

Deep moisture is still very present. Precipitable water values exceed 2 inches and any small disturbance will activate heavy rain. An upper-level trough is dropping over the Great Lakes region. As this moves off the east, high pressure will build over the Gulf. Drier conditions are expected for Thursday and Friday before a shortwave sparks up shower activity over the weekend. 

 --Marisa

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