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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Another cold night, showers possible Friday into the weekend

10 months 4 days 3 hours ago Tuesday, February 02 2021 Feb 2, 2021 February 02, 2021 5:52 PM February 02, 2021 in Forecast Discussion
Source: WBRZ Weather

Tuesday morning began with the 11th freeze of this winter season. Another is possible into Wednesday and then again near the end of the 7-Day Forecast.

The Next 24 Hours: Continued mainly clear skies and light, north winds will allow for another frosty night. Although our Baton Rouge area forecast is for 33 degrees, some locations along and north of I-12 could briefly nip freezing into Wednesday morning. The afternoon will stay quiet as sun pushes afternoon readings across 60 degrees.   

Groundhog Day: In Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, Phil the groundhog reportedly saw his shadow therefore predicting 6 more weeks of winter. Interesting that he saw his shadow while skies were overcast and snow was falling! Oh well, the little fella has only been right 36 percent of the time dating back to 1969. Despite the seemingly inaccurate report, this time, that may help the prediction with plenty of cold air on the way in the Northeast!  

After That: As winds shift southerly, Thursday will start considerably warmer in the 40s. Thermometers will warm into the low 70s as clouds build up through the day. It is likely that the next round of showers will hold off until Thursday night. At that time, a cold front will enter the region. Clouds and scattered showers are anticipated early Friday but could linger right through Saturday morning as temperatures ease down. A reinforcing cold front is expected to come through Sunday morning and that could bring another shot of cold air. Confidence is lower than usual in this end portion of the forecast due to large changes in the model guidance. CLICK HERE to view your complete 7-Day Forecast.   

The Explanation: Tuesday night will play out almost identically with clear skies and lows in the low to mid 30s. On Wednesday, a weak upper level ridge will slide over the region allowing temperatures to warm beyond 60 degrees. Winds will shift southerly resulting in a much warmer start and finish to Thursday in the 40s and 70sd respectively. Onshore flow will also promote advancing moisture and increasing clouds. As a cold front slips into the region on Friday morning, scattered showers will develop. The front will stall along the coast into the weekend and therefore it could stay dreary on Saturday with clouds and lingering showers. If the front can drift a little farther south, there is a chance for some sunshine Saturday afternoon. A second cold front will push into the region Saturday night or Sunday morning. Precipitation looks uneventful with this front, but it does pose an interesting temperature forecast challenge. There is still uncertainty as to whether the deepest and coldest air will track all the way to the Gulf Coast or hang north and east. After showing a colder scenario with yesterday’s output, today’s forecast models are holding the coldest air north and east of our area. Next week’s pattern also presents a messy, uncertain forecast. The idea is that a series of fast moving systems will keep it dreary with below average temperatures.   

 --Josh

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