Warmth rolls on, storms soon roll in
Baton Rouge Metro Airport tied a record high temperature on Monday, reaching 81 degrees. In addition to continued warmth, a pair of storm threats are up in the extended forecast.
Today and Tonight: A little more sunshine and slightly lower rain chances are expected on Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s with south, southeast winds of 5-10mph. Overnight, skies will stay partly cloudy with some patchy fog and lows in the mid 60s.
Up Next: Increased cloud cover and a better shot at showers are on call for Wednesday. Expect thermometers to stay above average with highs in the mid 70s. Rain chances will be even higher on Thursday, but with that comes the possibility of stronger thunderstorms as well. While not definitive yet, keep an eye on the forecast as things evolve. Beyond that, temperatures will stay well above average until after another strong storm threat over the weekend.
THE SCIENCE: A cold front will settle very slowly southeastward into North Louisiana later today, before stalling out. Mid-level moisture fields continue to look limited with uplift concentrated near the front. Therefore, rain chances remain very low through today. A negatively titled shortwave trough will cut across the lower third of the country on Wednesday, developing an area of low pressure along the stalled front. A slightly better shot at showers is expected on Wednesday with better moisture return ongoing through the atmosphere. The surface low and the upper level trough axis are expected to cross the local area on Thursday. Given the orientation of the trough, modest shear and marginal CAPE—there is at least a possibility on the table for some stronger thunderstorms. However, the front won’t fully kick through beyond this system and temperatures aren’t expected to change much. A deeper longwave trough will then begin to develop toward the weekend. A break in rain chances is possible on Friday as the trough digs south. Again, the region should be positioned in the left, front quadrant of the upper level jet streak and with ample vorticity at 500mb, there are some signals that severe weather is a possibility. Unlike the earlier trough, as this one pushes a front through, colder air is expected to advance southward in response to the deepening trough in the Southeastern United States. Temperatures will stay 10-15 degrees above average until after the weekend cold front with near normal readings after that.
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