Warm start to the week, monitoring storm threat for Halloween
Warm weather will persist through Tuesday. We will be monitoring a cold front which could bring showers and a few strong thunderstorms by trick-or-treat time on Halloween.
Today and Tonight: It will feel like a repeat from Sunday, as another sunny and warm day will grace us Monday. Temperatures warming into the 70s will cause fog to dissipate by mid-morning before topping out around 83 degrees this afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s beneath clear skies.
Up Next: High pressure south of the region will stick around through the beginning of the workweek, providing sunny skies and warmer than average temperatures. Clouds will increase Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, as a cold front approaches the area on Halloween. It will be a close call on trick-or-treat time with regard to the showers and thunderstorms. Right now, we are expecting a squall line to be the main mode of precipitation and this is projected to come around midnight. Some of the thunderstorms could be severe with downpours and gusty winds. The front will clear the area quickly, allowing clouds to break up through the late morning and early afternoon hours on Thursday. Clear, cool conditions will move in behind the front, with highs near 70 and lows near 50 Thursday through Saturday.
LSU vs. Bama: True football weather appears to be in store for the showdown in Tiger Stadium. The masses attending ESPN’s College Gameday on Saturday should enjoy sunny skies and cool temperatures. The afternoon high will nudge close to 70 degrees beneath sunny skies. While it may warm enough for short sleeves during tailgating, you will want a jacket heading into the game as thermometers fall into the lower 60s by the end of the game. Geaux Tigers.
The Tropics: Hurricane Oscar has grown a little stronger and is likely to strengthen further, but is not a threat to land areas. Maximum sustained winds are at 85 mph sustained winds with a minimum pressure of 984mb. The storm is located way out in the middle of the Atlantic – about 600 miles southeast of Bermuda. On Tuesday, Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north or north-northeast with an increase in forward speed. The hurricane is then expected to accelerate quickly toward the northeast through the middle of the week while gradually weakening.
Another cold front will move close to the area before stalling just to the northeast by late Monday. This may set the stage for many locations to observe dense fog again tonight into Tuesday if conditions can line up just right. A stronger and more progressive cold front will move into the area from the west Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Forecast models are having a hard time agreeing on timing. Regardless of when the front moves through, active weather will move across the Baton Rouge area quickly and noticeably. Uplift associated with this front will be strong enough that we should see a squall line form and approach the area.
There will be the possibility of a few if not several severe thunderstorms along this line. All modes of severe weather will be possible with this scenario but the greatest threat will be straight line damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the region in a 1/5 “marginal risk” for severe thunderstorms. Expect the cold front to be through the entire area by late Thursday morning with dry and cool air to follow. Clear skies and below average temperatures will then remain in the forecast through Sunday.
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