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Tuesday AM Forecast: Tropical showers to start on Tuesday; Revised hurricane season outlook

3 days 20 hours 33 minutes ago Tuesday, July 09 2024 Jul 9, 2024 July 09, 2024 10:04 AM July 09, 2024 in Forecast Discussion
Source: The Storm Station

UPDATE - 10 a.m. Tuesday - Beryl continues to weaken and is now classified as a post-tropical system. Plus, Colorado State University released a revised outlook for the rest of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Those updates are found in The Tropics section of the forecast blog below.

Although Beryl kept the capital area drier on Monday, the system is doing the opposite early Tuesday. Expect widely scattered showers to persist through the morning before letting up by afternoon as Beryl pulls away.

Today & Tonight: Overnight thunderstorms will continue into the morning hours on Tuesday for much of the WBRZ coverage area. Be alert to heavy rainfall a few cells, perhaps resulting in narrow streaks of rainfall up to 1". This could affect the Tuesday morning drive as widely scattered showers push northeast. Rain coverage will generally decrease as the day progresses. The sun might even poke out by afternoon. Early clouds and rain will keep temperatures a little bit lower on Tuesday afternoon. Highs will top out in the low-90s with feels-like temperatures a few degrees past 100° - well below Heat Advisory criteria. Tuesday night will feature mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Look for an overnight low in the middle-70s.

Up Next: Tuesday morning's rain was triggered by a surge of tropical moisture along and ahead of a "cool" front. This was driven by Beryl which continues to pull away from the area as it becomes post-tropical. That same front will stall over the capital region on Wednesday and Thursday, keeping most rain confined to the south. A spotty shower or two is not out of the question near Baton Rouge, but chances drop off closer to Mississippi. By late week, the front lifts to the north and everyone returns to the typical summertime pattern with pop-up afternoon storms. The heat will build also. More heat alerts might be needed by the weekend.

The Tropics - Update (10 a.m. Tuesday): Beryl was officially designated a post-tropical system on Tuesday morning. Beryl will accelerate in a northeastward fashion through the remainder of the week, with the remnants ending up in the Great Lakes region by midweek. There are no other areas of concern in the Atlantic Basin over the next seven days.

Meanwhile, forecasters at Colorado State University have revised their original forecast for a hyper-active Atlantic hurricane season to be even more active. Their forecast now calls for 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes.

Several reasons were cited for the change, including near-record warm ocean waters in the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea and a transition to a La Niña during the peak of hurricane season. The warm waters will provide ample fuel for tropical systems to thrive, and the La Niña will help reduce vertical wind shear in the Atlantic - which is beneficial to hurricanes. CSU also notes that "Hurricane Beryl, a deep tropical Category 5 hurricane, is also a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season."

The researchers at Colorado State University and the Storm Station remind that “it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season,” so prepare accordingly. What was seen with Beryl is a great reminder of that. There have been seasons with a lot of storms but few impacts to land and seasons with few storms but a lot of impacts to land. For more on the season ahead and preparedness, visit wbrz.com/weather and click on the hurricane center.

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-- Meteorologist Malcolm Byron

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