THIS WEEK: seasonable to cooler and drier
Today begins a brief spell of typical, pop-up, afternoon showers and thunderstorms with warm temperatures and some humidity. Get ready though, our first big break of cool and dry air will arrive by mid-week.
Today and Tonight: Your Monday will be partly sunny with just a flare up shower or two during the afternoon hours. A verified forecast should reveal measurable rain in about 30 percent of the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area--mainly south of I-10. High temperature will spike around 90 degrees. Any showers will end overnight with a low temperature in the low 70s.
Up Next: There is a slightly better chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front will bring some cooler and drier air more characteristic of autumn than summer across the area. Beyond the front, an area of high pressure will move in and skies will be mainly clear through the end of the week and the weekend. Not too many "first LSU tailgates" in memory come with little or no sweat and a morning light jacket, but maybe this year!
The Tropics: Hurricane Irma continues to be a storm to monitor in the United States. The storm has a minimum central pressure of 961mb, with maximum sustained winds of 115mph and is moving west, southwest at 14mph. It remains too far away to be exactly sure where this powerful storm will end up. Computer models show some agreement on a track that will affect the east coast, or move the storm out to sea.
A surface high pressure system will slowly drift north through Monday. Winds will the southeasterly and add some low level moisture. This will result in connection primarily south of I-10 during the afternoon hours. Continued northward advance of low level moisture will allow rain chances to move farther north on Tuesday. A strong cold front will then push through the area on Wednesday morning. With a summer-like, moist and unstable air mass in place, frontal lift will be able to generate widespread showers and thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms are not expected but given the strength of the front, one or two rambunctious storms are not out of the question. Activity will taper from north to south through the day as dry air advances southward. Cold air advection behind the front will yield fall-like temperatures across the region for the latter half of the week. With the frontal passage and forecast position of Irma, northeast flow and pleasant weather may stick around through next weekend.