THE FORECAST: 

Tonight and Tomorrow: Cloudy conditions tonight will allow for a mild night. Overnight lows are only expected to drop near 60° into Monday morning as winds stay out of the southeast at around 10 mph. Spotty showers will be nearing our area as we approach midnight. These light showers will continue through the night and Monday, but rain amounts should stay below 0.1”. Temperatures will be rather warm, as highs peak near 77° with 10 to 15 mph winds out of the southwest.

Up Next:  A wet start to the workweek, as rain and storm chances peak Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will stay in the upper 70s during this timeframe, before dropping back near average by Thursday. This will also be accompanied with the return to sunny skies and dry conditions, which will last through the weekend.  

THE EXPLANATION:

High pressure will stay close enough to keep showers on Monday at a minimum, but will depart along the East Coast Tuesday. Rain chances will greatly increase through the day Tuesday, as a low pressure center developing along the Texas’ south coast travels up the Gulf coast into Louisiana. This will strengthen onshore flow, but also will enhance lifting and buoyancy in the atmosphere as it approaches. These two factors will allow for storms to develop Tuesday afternoon, but the greater threat for severe weather will be on Wednesday along and just in front of the main cold front. The speed shear looks favorable for severe weather on Wednesday, but may be lessened if the front weakens or moves more northward. Some models are hinting at one of both occurring, but confidence is currently low. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and a chance for an isolated tornado will all be possible. 1” to 4” of rain are expected through Thursday morning, with higher amounts north of I-10; mainly along the Mississippi/Louisiana border. High pressure will then build over the area Thursday through Saturday, keeping things dry with northerly winds and sinking air.  

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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