After an active stretch of weather, the Capital Area will get a chance to dry out. Some of the warmest afternoon highs so far this spring may be notched.

The National Weather Service confirmed an EF-1 tornado touched down near Centreville, Mississippi on Sunday and tracked north for two miles. The damage path was 125 yards wide and maximum winds of 105mph were strong enough to wrap an unoccupied mobile home around a large tree.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Quiet weather will settle into the region today. As a storm system pulls away, a rogue shower may linger through the morning hours, especially north and east of Baton Rouge. Either way, skies will trend mostly sunny by afternoon. High temperatures will get into the low 80s. A clear, calm night will follow with low temperatures in the upper 50s.  

Up Next:  Surface high pressure in the Gulf will allow clear skies to persist Wednesday. Warm spring temperatures in the mid 80s are expected. A weaker system will race through Thursday and Thursday night with an uptick in clouds and perhaps a passing shower. Another strong frontal system is poised to move through our area this weekend. Rain and thunderstorms will increase on Saturday and may last into Sunday as well. It is too early to call specifics, but the time of year and storm track means another round of strong storms is possible.

With spring beginning, we get the unfriendly, sneezing reminder that pollen season is upon us. You can get an updated allergy report each weekday morning on 2une In and every day from the WBRZ Weather Facebook and Twitter pages.

The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, major flood stage continues with a level of 41.1’ as of Tuesday morning. Peaking at 44.1’ on March 19, the river set its 7th highest recorded crest at Baton Rouge. In addition, at 94 days this is now the 4th longest period above flood stage. Due to river flooding and drainage north of the area, runoff will keep the river high for many days to come. The high water is primarily an issue for river traffic and river islands, although some inundation will continue unprotected low-lying areas. The grounds of the older part of Louisiana State University's campus become soggy. This includes the area around the Veterinary Medicine building, the Veterinary Medicine Annex, the stadium and ball fields. The city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus are protected by levees up to 47 feet. Some seepage may be noted due to the long duration of high water placing pressure on the levees. Water from the extensive Missouri River flooding across the Upper Midwest will not reach Baton Rouge until late April and the Mississippi River is expected to have fallen some by that time. As some of the Mississippi River diverts into the Atchafalaya River, gauges at Krotz Springs and Morgan City will stay high as well. Like Big Muddy, this is expected to be a prolonged event but is not uncommon for the time of year. Read more HERE. 

THE EXPLANATION:

Drier air behind an upper level low and cold front will make a run of nice, quiet weather through the middle of the week. This will also result in us feeling less humidity with larger high to low temperature ranges. Days will peak in the mid 80s with nights dipping into the upper 50s. Another strong upper level trough will move north of the area on Thursday. An attendant cold front will press through but likely not have enough moisture for any more than passing clouds and possibly a light shower into Friday morning. An even stronger upper level trough will develop across Texas and move over the region on Saturday. This will bring the next period of elevated coverage in rain and thunderstorms. The track of this system and climatology suggest this one will need to be monitored for severe weather potential. Timing and details will be worked out in the coming days.     

--Josh

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