If you are looking for a backyard bath, the next two days offer the best chance. Fewer “fireworks” will be around Thursday and Friday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A little more moisture will come into the atmosphere on Tuesday and this will allow a few more showers and thunderstorms develop. Isolated to scattered coverage is anticipated. High temperatures will reach the low 90s. Any showers will diminish shortly after dark followed by low temperatures in the mid 70s.  

On Monday, approximately 20 percent of the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area received measurable rain. A shower flared up right over the I-10/12 merge with a few more in southern Iberville, Assumption and St. Mary Parishes. Amounts were minor. 

Up Next: Afternoon storm chances will remain in the scattered category on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to pop-up shortly after noon, and move north into the evening. A warmer atmosphere will build Thursday, allowing for conditions to be drier and hotter for July 4th and 5th. High temperatures will be making it into the mid-90s, with some spots potentially reaching into the upper-90s on Friday. Heat index values will be back into the triple digits during this timeframe. Showers and storm chances may bump up over the weekend—especially Sunday.

The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next 5 days.

The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, major flood stage continues with a level of 41.9’ as of Tuesday morning. Peaking at 44.1’ on March 19, the river set its 7th highest recorded crest at Baton Rouge. At 178 days, this year marks the longest period above flood stage at Baton Rouge. The level will slowly fall, but is likely to stay above flood stage for several weeks to come. The high water will remain an issue for river traffic and river islands, although some inundation will continue for unprotected low-lying areas. The city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus are protected by levees up to 47 feet. Some soggy areas and seepage may be noted due to the long duration of high water placing pressure on the levees. As some of the Mississippi River diverts into the Atchafalaya River, gauges at Krotz Springs and Morgan City will stay high as well. This creates backwater flooding in parts of Assumption Parish in areas such as Bayou Chene, Stephensville and around Lake Palourde.

THE EXPLANATION:

The forecast models are split on how the next few days will unfold. The main issue is moisture availability for showers and thunderstorms. Blending the solutions is the going method with isolated to scattered development forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. This means 30 to 40 percent of the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area is expected to receive measurable rainfall. As is common for early July, the rain chances should be highest in the afternoon hours. Confidence is higher in Thursday and Friday staying mainly dry. With an upper level ridge building over the region, compressional warming may lead to some very warm temperatures as well. Highs in the mid 90s are likely with upper 90s possible. Even though the atmosphere will dry out a bit, the surface certainly will not. With high dew points accompanying the warmer temperatures, heat indices will likely go well over 100 degrees for several hours. The National Weather Service may issue some heat bulletins—especially with many taking part in outdoor activities. A persistence forecast will be carried into next weekend.

--Josh

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