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Just in time, drying trend underway

1 year 7 months 3 weeks ago Friday, January 31 2020 Jan 31, 2020 January 31, 2020 6:08 AM January 31, 2020 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Finally, a multi-day stretch of low to no rain chances is ahead. Temperatures will warm up into early next week.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Somewhat underachieving, the latest storm system is through with most of its rain. Expect clouds, occasional peeks of sun and just lingering, spotty showers for the rest of your Friday. This will tamp down any considerable warming. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s for most of the day. Skies will stay mostly cloudy overnight with temperatures in the mid 40s.

Up Next: Some clouds will stick around for a little while on Saturday. This will have to be monitored for temperature trends—the longer they stay, the lower the high temperature. Overall though, a pair of quiet afternoons can be expected for your weekend with high temperatures in the low 60s Saturday and upper 60s on Sunday. Certainly, more sun is expected for the second half of the weekend. Monday will be a little warmer and has a chance at reaching 70 degrees as clouds increase in advance of the next storm system, which could then linger for a few days.  

THE EXPLANATION:

A shortwave upper level trough will move into the area early Friday. The associated surface low will pull away to the east by afternoon, effectively ending organized rain. However, the trailing upper level low will cause a lot of cloud cover and even a spotty shower through the afternoon. In fact, that upper low may cause clouds to hang around into early Saturday. A weak ridge of high pressure will build over the area Saturday through Sunday leading to clearing skies and moderating temperatures.

The next upper level trough will arrive on Tuesday and will be deeper and less progressive than recent systems. The local area will spend a few days on the active, eastern side of the trough with deep southwesterly wind flow transporting moisture into the atmosphere. In addition, upper level divergence will help to provide some uplift as the system moves through the area. A cold front will come into the region on Wednesday but take until Thursday to move east. Therefore, a two to three day stretch of decent rain chances is expected. Available wind shear will need to be monitored to determine the potential strength of any thunderstorms.

--Josh

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