A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area on Monday. Another stretch of nice, seasonable weather will follow.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A broken band of showers and thunderstorms will move into the region during the mid-morning hours. From that time into the early evening hours, scattered activity is expected around the region. While severe weather is not a major concern, downpours and gusty wind are possible. High temperatures will sneak into the upper 70s before the cold front arrives. Once the boundary moves south this evening, skies will clear out with low temperatures dipping back into the low 50s.

Up Next:  Surface high pressure behind the front will dry conditions out as winds shift northwesterly. Highs will be cooler on Tuesday and Wednesday, staying in the low 70s. Lows will bottom out around 46 Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with warming commencing through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will break into the mid-70s on Thursday, and clouds will increase by Friday. This will be associated with an approaching frontal system that will bring the next chance for showers and thunderstorms early next weekend.

With spring beginning, we get the unfriendly, sneezing reminder that pollen season is upon us. You can get an updated allergy report each weekday morning on 2une In and every day from the WBRZ Weather Facebook and Twitter pages.

The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, major flood stage continues with a level of 43.7’ as of Monday morning. This marks the 7th highest recorded crest and the 4th longest period above flood stage at 80 days. Due to river flooding and drainage north of the area, runoff will keep the river near this crest for the next several days. The high water is primarily an issue for river traffic and river islands, although some inundation will continue for a few spots north and south of Baton Rouge that are not protected by levees. Unprotected low-lying areas will be flooded and agricultural operations will be impacted on the west side of the river. The grounds of the older part of Louisiana State University's campus become soggy. This includes the area around the Veterinary Medicine building, the Veterinary Medicine Annex, the stadium and ball fields. The city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus are protected by levees up to 47 feet. Some seepage may be noted due to the long duration of high water placing pressure on the levees. Water from the extensive Missouri River flooding across the Upper Midwest will not reach Baton Rouge until April and the Mississippi River is expected to have fallen some by that time. As some of the Mississippi River diverts into the Atchafalaya River, gauges at Krotz Springs and Morgan City will stay high as well. Like Big Muddy, this is expected to be a prolonged event but is not uncommon for the time of year. Read more HERE. 

THE EXPLANATION:

A surface low over Tennessee will continue to track east and an associated positively tilted mid-level trough will also push southeast. These features will drag a cold front through the local area. Moisture pooling ahead of the boundary and surface heating will allow sufficient instability for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Fortunately, wind shear will be pretty weak so severe weather is looking very low probability. The aforementioned instability may allow some gusty wind to translate down to the surface though. As far as timing goes, the initial band of activity will race ahead of the front and weaken in the face of higher surface pressures during the morning hours. Once the front arrives, some redevelopment will occur along the boundary, which is when the better shot at receiving rain, and any gusty thunderstorms will occur. The front will push south this evening with drying after midnight. A bit of cold air advection will knock down temperatures back to near average Tuesday through Thursday followed by a slight warming trend Friday and Saturday. Another system will approach the Lower Mississippi Valley bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday.

--Josh

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