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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Tuesday morning video forecast

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Gray and unsettled weather is in the forecast through Thursday. When the sun returns, so will cooler temperatures.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A cold front will settle into the Midwest on Tuesday. With a saturated atmosphere ahead of this, the local area can expect thick clouds and scattered showers. The day will not be a washout. The best chance for showers will come during the morning hours. Since the southerly winds will continue before the front arrives, high temperatures will return to the mid 70s. Overnight, showers will stay isolated in coverage with lows in the mid 60s.

Up Next: A cold front will very slowly push into the area on Wednesday. Due to a later arrival, the atmosphere will be able to warm and provide more fuel for thunderstorms. This energy is enough to constitute a 2/5 “slight risk” for severe weather on Wednesday. The main threat from strong thunderstorms will be gusty wind. Secondarily, the slow moving nature of the cold front could lead to pockets of poor drainage flooding. Finally, an isolated tornado is possible. High resolution models suggest that most of the activity will occur later in the afternoon and into the nighttime hours. The cold front will barely be to the Mississippi/Alabama border by Thursday and therefore clouds and showers will linger. Additionally, thermometers will crash behind the boundary, with afternoon readings falling out of the 50s and into the 40s followed by nighttime temps in the upper 30s. Though there could be some passing clouds or light showers, generally quiet weather is expected Friday through Monday.

THE EXPLANATION:

A deep trough over the Western U.S. will spawn a cold front in the Midwest. This system will enhance the south the southwest flow over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday. Therefore, above average temperatures and an advance of moisture into the atmosphere will continue. As a result, overcast skies and spotty, light showers are possible on Tuesday. As the trough and cold front move into the local area on Wednesday, enough lift will be present to act on the unseasonable warmth and moisture and generate thunderstorms. Winds in the atmosphere will increase but remain mostly unidirectional, which means that damaging winds may occur in some thunderstorms and the threat for tornadoes is lesser but not zero. Due to this, the Storm Prediction Center has placed all of the local area in a 2/5 “slight risk” for severe weather.

The cold front will continue to creep east Wednesday night into Thursday, and the trailing upper level trough and a disturbance spinning over the area will create another round of moderate rain. This may continue well into Thursday. Rain, low clouds and falling temperatures will make for an uncomfortable day. Morning thermometers in the upper 50s and low 60s, will end up in the 40s by late afternoon. Friday will be dry and sunny. Forecast models are indicating that a weak cold front will race through the area later Saturday. This could lead to a brief period of clouds or even light showers, but will not result in any major impacts.  

--Josh

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