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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Monday morning video forecast

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Cool, fall temperatures will hang on through Monday before a few storm system impact the area. Rain will be most likely on Thursday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: High pressure behind the cold front that has passed on Saturday will continue to provide dry and cool conditions. More and more clouds will be noticed through the day, as highs reach near 73 degrees with continued north winds. Overnight, clouds will increase and hold lows in the upper 50s.

Up Next: A weak frontal system will bring some showers to the area on Tuesday, but thanks to more moisture availability along the coast, rain chances will be much higher closer to the Gulf and lower into southwest Mississippi. With mainly cloudy skies, a small range in temperatures is expected with most areas topping out in the low 70s. Wednesday will bring a break in the active weather as a stronger system develops in the western Gulf of Mexico. By Thursday, this area of low pressure will swing across south Louisiana leading to widespread rain. Fortunately, this storm will move just far enough south  that any strong to severe thunderstorms should remain offshore. Some thunderstorms may occur as far north as I-10 though. By the end of the week, a cold front will sweep through the region leading to clear, dry, cool weather for Friday and next weekend.  

The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next 5 days.   

THE EXPLANATION:

The subtropical jet will begin transporting moisture across Mexico and Texas on Monday as an upper ridge near the northern Caribbean shifts west. As this moisture surges northeast towards the area, a reinforcing surface ridge of high pressure will be pushing back south towards the Gulf. This will create a situation with warm moisture overrunning cooler/drier air. The result will be stratiform rainfall across the forecast area with the highest coverage along the coast and minimal activity in southwest Mississippi. A shortwave trough tracking across the country on Wednesday will then break down the ridge aloft. As it moves east into the midsection of the country, it will be drawing the remnants of Hurricane Willa (in the Pacific) across Texas and through the local area.

Forecast models indicate cyclogenesis occurring as it passes through on Wednesday night but it should be a non-tropical low. If the current model tracks are right, it’s a good thing for the local area. Being right over the Baton Rouge area to along the coast means the warm sector, where potentially severe storms could be, will stay over the coastal waters. Any jog north at all will increase the possibility for thunderstorms and possibility severe weather south of I-10. Either way, an elongated rainy stretch is anticipated Wednesday night through Thursday night. 1-3 inches of rain seem possible at this time. It has been dry enough of late that these amounts would be manageable. Models then suggest a reinforcing trough will bring a front through the area going into next weekend, which will flush out the moisture. This will lead to below normal temperatures and no rain possibly through early next week. Timing for the following system may be close in regards to precipitation and Halloween.

--Dr. Josh

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