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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Monday evening video forecast

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Entering the month of May, temperatures are obviously expected to warm. That idea will hold true this week with a chance for the first 90 degree high of the year.

Next 24 Hours: Overnight, clouds will break up a bit. Winds will stay out of the south at 5-10mph maintaining a muggy feel. Low temperatures will bottom out in the upper 60s. Much more sunshine is expected on Tuesday. With that, high temperatures will climb a little higher into the upper 80s.

Up Next: Wednesday will be quite warm. With mostly sunny skies, high temperatures will take a run at 90 degrees. Ongoing southerly winds will maintain humidity through the week. Into Thursday, low temperatures will barely drop out of the 70s. While the afternoon will have plenty of sun, there is a shot for a stray shower or thunderstorm. The much better chance for precipitation will come on Friday. A cold front will stall north of the local area but will be close enough to fire up scattered showers and thunderstorms. Given the warmth and humidity that will be in place, some of the storms could be aggressive. Especially if upper level winds become favorable, one or two could be severe. The cold front will not come all the way through the area and warmth will continue into next weekend. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

The Explanation: An upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to build over the area for the middle of the week. This will cause the atmosphere to warm and dry, promoting stability and clearing skies. Sinking air associated with the upper level ridge will cause additional warming and high temperatures will be several degrees above average, possibly approaching 90 degrees Tuesday through Thursday.  At the surface, onshore flow (south winds) will maintain a humid Gulf of Mexico air mass and will also keep low temperatures above average in the upper 60s. By Thursday evening, an upper level trough of low pressure will send a cold front out of the Lower Midwest and into the Mississippi River Valley. A line of showers and thunderstorms will race out ahead of the front and into the local area. Certainly, there will be plenty of warmth and humidity available so the possibility of severe weather will depend on the upper level winds. As of now, the most favorable wind shear looks as though it will be just north of the state line. With decreasing chances from Mississippi into Louisiana, damaging wind gusts could occur in one or two storms, with a low but non-zero chance for an isolated tornado. By Friday afternoon, the storms will push east of the local area with drier conditions and slightly lower high temperatures due to the early rain and lingering cloud cover. While a few showers and thunderstorms remain possible on Saturday, another upper level ridge of high pressure will once again bring a warmer and drier atmosphere with sinking motions on Sunday. If it does not happen this week, high temperatures are likely to hit the 90s on the second half of the weekend.

--Josh

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