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Briefly warmer followed by extended stretch of cool temps

9 months 10 hours 29 minutes ago Monday, January 21 2019 Jan 21, 2019 January 21, 2019 6:27 AM January 21, 2019 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Aside from Tuesday, colder than average temperatures will continue through the forecast period. Some rain will dampen mid-week.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: High pressure will dominate the weather pattern for another day, providing sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures. Highs will top out in the upper 50s followed by much warmer lows near 50 degrees due to increasing southeasterly winds. Additionally, clouds will increase overnight.

Up Next: A storm system will push into the region on Tuesday. Expect mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers. It will be briefly milder, possibly reaching the low 70s, prior to the arrival of a cold front. Into Wednesday, scattered to widespread rain is expected as the front slides overtop of the Baton Rouge area. Chilly air will push in at the same time, keeping temperatures in the 50s. Showers will be out by Thursday, as another surface high pressure slides along the Gulf Coast. Temperatures will remain below average through the remainder of the workweek with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. The next chance for precipitation will come on Saturday.

THE EXPLANATION:

A ridge of high pressure will push east tonight and tomorrow thus opening the door for moisture to return from the Gulf of Mexico. Dry conditions will persist overnight but the returning moisture is expected to get trapped beneath dry, milder air aloft and a deck of stratus clouds will develop. The surge in low level moisture will also push overnight lows to above normal readings in the upper 40s and low 50s followed by highs in the low 70s. Ahead of an approaching cold front, a few showers may develop by the afternoon hours. A vigorous positively tilted shortwave trough and the associated cold front will then push through the forecast area Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

Ample uplift and moisture will lead to widespread showers on Wednesday. This event should not bring severe weather or heavy rain. As the front pushes into the area, temperatures will fall and a chilly rain is expected on Wednesday. Rain will quickly end from west to east overnight with clearing skies by Thursday morning. Deep layer northwest flow will take hold on Thursday and remain in place Friday. A reinforcing cold front will push through the area Thursday night without precipitation. Temperatures will stay well below average with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s Wednesday, Thursday and Friday nights. Another freeze is even possible—especially Friday night. Into the weekend, both the GFS and the ECMWF models indicate that another upper level disturbance will slide across the Gulf south over the coming weekend. Both also indicate the potential of a Gulf low forming off the Louisiana coast and then pushing east toward the Florida Panhandle Saturday into Sunday. In this scenario, the local region would remain on the northern and colder side of the system through the weekend, and the current forecast is for temperatures to remain just warm enough to keep any precipitation in liquid form.

--Dr. Josh

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