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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Tuesday PM Forecast: 90s possible ahead of next storm system

7 months 3 days 9 hours ago Tuesday, May 03 2022 May 3, 2022 May 03, 2022 4:57 PM May 03, 2022 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Even warmer temperatures are expected through the middle of the week. If 90s aren’t reached on Wednesday and Thursday, they are almost certain from the weekend into early next week.

Next 24 Hours: Skies will be mostly clear early tonight with some low clouds forming around dawn. The muggy feel will continue with low temperatures in the upper 60s. Wednesday will be mostly sunny. With south winds of 5-10mph, high temperatures will climb a little higher into the upper 80s.

Up Next: Ongoing southerly winds will maintain humidity through the week. Into Thursday, low temperatures will barely drop out of the 70s. While the afternoon will have plenty of sun, there is a shot for a stray shower or thunderstorm north and west of Baton Rouge. The much better chance for precipitation will come early Friday. A cold front will stall north of the local area but will be close enough to fire off a batch of showers and thunderstorms. Given the warmth and humidity that will be in place, some of the storms could produce strong gusty winds. The area will dry out by the late afternoon hours. Since the cold front will not come all the way through the area, warmth will not only continue but increase over the weekend. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

The Explanation: An upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to build over the area for the middle of the week. This will cause the atmosphere to warm and dry, promoting stability and clearing skies. Sinking air associated with the upper level ridge will cause additional warming and high temperatures will be several degrees above average, possibly approaching 90 degrees through Thursday.  At the surface, onshore flow (south winds) will maintain a humid Gulf of Mexico air mass and will also keep low temperatures above average in the upper 60s. By Thursday evening, an upper level trough of low pressure will send a cold front out of the Lower Midwest and into the Mississippi River Valley. A line of showers and thunderstorms will race out ahead of the front and into the local area. Certainly, there will be plenty of warmth and humidity available so the possibility of severe weather will depend on the upper level winds. As of now, the most favorable wind shear looks as though it will be just northwest of the Capital City. With decreasing chances from Mississippi into Louisiana, damaging wind gusts could occur in one or two storms, with a low but non-zero chance for an isolated tornado. By Friday afternoon, the storms will push east of the local area with drier conditions and slightly lower high temperatures due to the early rain and lingering cloud cover. While a few showers and thunderstorms remain possible on Saturday, another upper level ridge of high pressure will once again bring a warmer and drier atmosphere with sinking motions on Sunday. If it does not happen this week, high temperatures are quite likely to hit the 90s for several consecutive days from this weekend into early next week.

--Josh

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