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Tranquil weather pattern as we head to the holidays

3 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago Monday, November 18 2019 Nov 18, 2019 November 18, 2019 6:27 AM November 18, 2019 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Rather quiet weather will continue through the middle of the week. Do expect gradually warming temperatures prior to the next cold front.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Mainly sunny skies will stick around to start the week. Only some passing, high clouds will mix in at times. High temperatures will reach near 67 degrees with light, northwest winds. Overnight will be clear with low temperatures near 42 degrees.

Up Next: A weak area of high pressure will maintain dry and tranquil weather through the middle of the week. Highs will warm a little more each day reaching the low 70s on Tuesday and the upper 70s by Thursday. Lows will also warm daily from the low 40s to mid 50s. A frontal system will return showers and possibly thunderstorms by Friday. The most difficult aspect of this forecast is timing of the front. 5 days away, there is still a decent spread of possibilities that leave early Friday to late Saturday as a window of opportunity for rain. More specifics and a tighter window should materialize in the coming days.

The Tropics: A broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms with winds of around 30 mph on its northeast side. Some gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form during the next couple of days while it moves northwestward and then northward over the open Atlantic.  After that time, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive and the disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal system after midweek, so additional development is not expected. The National Hurricane Center leaves a 50 percent chance of formation.

THE EXPLANATION:

A weak upper trough and cold front will pass through the region on Monday with little more than some passing cirrus clouds. Northwest winds will maintain slightly below average temperatures. The deeper, larger trough in the Eastern U.S. will move off the Atlantic Coast by the middle of the week. As this occurs, a weak upper level ridge will pass over the region and a southerly component to surface winds will allow temperatures to warm above average Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Dry conditions will prevail. As this happens, a new trough will develop over the Southwest U.S. This trough will initiate a frontal system that will drive east across the nation and into the local area by Friday. The potential for severe weather appears low. Therefore, the main issue with this part of the forecast is timing. Guidance indicates that the front will push through Friday night or early Saturday morning. However, is the upper level trough slows down, the outcome could be much slower with some showers lingering into the first half of the weekend. Drier and cooler conditions will trail that system. More clarity on timing should be available by the middle of the week.  

--Josh

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