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Rainy start to an active week of weather

2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago Monday, June 22 2020 Jun 22, 2020 June 22, 2020 5:54 AM June 22, 2020 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Contrary to last week, the coming days will be wetter than average with several periods of rain and thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty wind and downpours, leading to some pockets of street and poor drainage flooding.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: As Sunday afternoon turned rather busy across the Capital Area, Monday is poised to be a repeat. In fact, even greater coverage in showers and thunderstorms is anticipated and most locations will receive some rain to begin the workweek. Though there may be some breaks after a morning round of showers and thunderstorms, activity will be possible through the day. As observed on Sunday, one or two spots could pick up a few quick inches and experience areal flooding. With clouds on top of that, high temperatures will be held in the mid 80s. As the showers ease in coverage overnight, low temperatures will stay muggy in the mid 70s.          

Up Next: Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will stay in the forecast through Wednesday. Though the area has been dry of late, the cumulative impact of warm season downpours will eventually saturate the ground and make it possible for some street and poor drainage flooding as we move into the middle of the week. As a reminder, please find an alternate route if you come across a flooded road.  Clouds and showers will tamp down high temperatures through Wednesday while the humid air mass will cause overnight low temperatures to stay in the mid 70s. By the end of the week, a slightly drier and warmer trend will emerge but it does not appear that showers and thunderstorms can be eliminated from the forecast.   

The Tropics: Shower activity associated with a low pressure system located several hundred miles southeast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts is continuing to become less organized.  The low has moved over cold water north of the Gulf Stream, and tropical or subtropical development has become less likely with chances now at just 20 percent. The system is expected to weaken as it moves over even colder waters later today and Tuesday.

THE EXPLANATION:

The axis of an upper level trough of low pressure will slowly migrate from the Lower Midwest across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley through Wednesday. East of this trough axis, ample lift in the atmosphere will tap some very deep moisture to produce rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Atmospheric moisture, or precipitable water, was measured at 2.2” on Monday morning—very high for the time of year. Any thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rain and these water loaded storms tend to be prolific lightning producers as well. Pockets of positive vorticity, or disturbances in the upper levels, will at times enhance the development of showers and thunderstorms. Forecast model guidance hints at these disturbances on Monday morning and afternoon as well as Tuesday afternoon. These periods should yield the most action. It would not be surprising to see some locations collect several inches of rain through the middle of the week, though the area-wide average will be around 1-3 inches. Through Wednesday, times of rain and widespread clouds will keep high temperatures below average in the mid to upper 80s. However, high dew point temperatures will result in above average low temperatures in the mid 70s. By Thursday, the trough axis will begin to push east and some ridging will occur aloft resulting in a warmer and slightly more stable atmosphere. Though marine breeze convection will still be able to occur in this setup, far less coverage is expected Friday through Saturday.   
--Josh

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