Nice first weekend of March, unsettled next week
We certainly do not expect a weekend washout, but can say that outdoor plans are in much better shape Saturday, when rain chances are zero.
Today and Tonight: The week will wrap up on a sunny and seasonable note. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s with northeast winds of 5-10mph. The overnight hours will again be chilly, in the mid 40s, under mostly clear skies.
Up Next: On Saturday, along with sunshine, skies may reveal some cirrus clouds at times. High temperatures will top out near 70 degrees. As winds shift southeasterly overnight, low temperatures will be warmer and in the mid 50s. Some fog could develop as well. For the second half of the weekend, more clouds are anticipated with high temperatures getting into the low 70s. A spotty shower is possible as return flow brings moisture and above average temperatures back to the region. A more robust system will bring higher rain and thunderstorm chances early next week.
THE SCIENCE: Surface high pressure will move from the Lower Midwest to the Great Lakes Region by Saturday. Northerly surface winds and a dry atmosphere will result in mostly clear and seasonable conditions. A few weak pockets of positive vorticity advection may result in times of cirrus clouds Friday and Saturday. A slightly better defined shortwave trough is expected to cross the Gulf Coast on Sunday and with this and inbound moisture thanks to return flow may be enough to produce a more prominent cloud deck and possibly a shower. Still, there isn’t too much with this wave and the ECMWF is more aggressive with the wave and subsequent precipitation than the GFS. More significant model disagreement arises next week as the GFS shows a sharper trough axis and associated cold front crossing the area on Tuesday with up to a half of an inch of rain possible. The ECMWF is still presenting a weaker solution than the GFS but is trending wetter and therefore, we’ll increase the rain chances for Tuesday. Temperatures will moderate to average by Sunday and be slightly above into the middle of next week.
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