Isolated rain chances possible for everyone this afternoon.

THE FORECAST: 

Today and Tonight: A few isolated afternoon showers will be possible for everyone. Areas north and east of Baton Rouge will have a better chance to see a shower today. Temperatures will be able to climb to near 92 degrees and overnight lows will be near 76.    

Up Next: On Wednesday, rain chances will be similar to today. Isolated showers are expected with temperatures near 93. By Thursday, showers and storms become more widespread (50%) as a tropical wave moves near the area with temperatures near 89. Larger rain chances remain for Friday (50%) too. Temperatures climb back into the 90s again for Friday and the weekend. All week, overnight lows will be near 76. 

The Tropics:

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over western Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent Atlantic and Caribbean waters.  Gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the next few days.  This system is expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today, the central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in association with a low pressure system located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.  Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two while the low moves westward at around 10 mph over the tropical Atlantic.  By the weekend, however, less favorable conditions should limit additional development. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

THE EXPLANATION:

Deep moisture that was suppressed for most of last week is now very evident in our area. An easterly wave will enhance moisture and instability. Shower activity through Wednesday will be enhanced due to this wave and the status of the tropical wave will determine rain probability for the rest of the week. All the rain will keep the heat down to a more manageable 90 degrees. 

 --Marisa

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