Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Monday PM Forecast: Severe threat diminishing, big cool down on the way

7 months 3 weeks 4 days ago Monday, November 20 2023 Nov 20, 2023 November 20, 2023 4:23 PM November 20, 2023 in Forecast Discussion
Source: The Storm Station

*12:30 am update*: Numerous showers are around the area but most of the stronger storms are exciting. At this time, the severe threat has come to an end. Rain coverage will slowly decrease over the next 2-3 hours.

Tonight & Tomorrow: Through the rest of the night, the threat for storms and rain will fade as a cold front makes its way through southeast Louisiana. This will give way to dry, but cloudy conditions for daybreak. Temperatures in the morning will be in the 50's. Temperatures will be falling throughout the day on Tuesday after an early morning cold front. Clouds will stick around throughout the day.

Up Next: Below average temperatures will be in the forecast for the middle and end of the week. We are watching another disturbance that could bring some rain to southern Louisiana on Thursday. As for right now, it looks like there will be isolated showers and most will stay dry. Another chance of rain will be possible next Monday. Since this still far out, details will change.

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The Tropics: Earlier satellite wind data indicated that a small but well-defined area of low pressure in the central Caribbean Sea was producing winds of 25-30 mph. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity with this system remains disorganized, and nearby dry air is forecast to prevent much additional development as the system begins to drift slowly westward over the next few days.

An area of low pressure is developing along a frontal boundary just to the southeast of Bermuda. This non-tropical low is forecast to move southeastward across the central subtropical Atlantic over warmer sea surface temperatures during the next few days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to gradually acquire tropical characteristics. A subtropical or tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week, as the system continues moving eastward followed by a turn northeastward by the weekend.

-- Balin

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