THE FORECAST: 

Tonight and Tomorrow: Partly cloudy skies tonight as a cool night is ahead. Temperatures will be dropping into the 50s around 8 PM, with overnight lows of 46° with light winds out of the southeast. Partly cloudy through much of Sunday, but clouds will be increasing through the evening hours. Temperatures will be breaking into the 60s around 10 AM, with highs near 73°. Conditions will also be rather breezy, with winds out of the south between 10 and 15 mph – especially through the afternoon.

Up Next:  Showers move in after midnight on Sunday, but rain chances will be very slow to increase. Spotty showers on Monday will lead to more scattered storms Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a potential for strong to severe storms to develop Tuesday afternoon and evening. Dry and sunny conditions return Thursday and extend into the weekend.  

THE EXPLANATION:

The high pressure that has kept Friday and today pleasant will begin to depart our area to the southeast on Sunday. This will provide efficient onshore winds to keep cranking up the warmth and also increasing the moisture content in the atmosphere. A low pressure system will be taking shape off the California and Baja coast Sunday into Monday and flow aloft will be transitioning initially to zonal before coming in from the southwest along the Gulf Coast. A rather flat and slow moving frontal system will approach from the northwest early in the week, with the potential for spotty showers as early as midnight on Sunday. Rain chances should start off rather spotty on Monday, but will increase Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a potential for strong storms to develop ahead of the main front Tuesday afternoon and evening, before the frontal boundary passes on Wednesday night. Models are becoming a little better aligned, but the GFS still brings the front in quicker than the EURO. Regardless, high pressure returns Thursday, drying us out under sunny skies.

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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