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Wednesday PM Forecast: several nights in the 30s ahead

1 year 8 months 1 week ago Wednesday, November 16 2022 Nov 16, 2022 November 16, 2022 3:31 PM November 16, 2022 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

The first freeze of the season is possible before the week is over. The chilly air mass will stay beyond that, and even be reinforced by a weak front on Saturday.

Next 24 Hours: We will enter another night with mainly cloudy skies through some breaks may occur late and closer to dawn. With slightly lighter north winds of 5-10mph, low temperatures will drop into the mid 30s. A little blue sky and sunshine should get into the mix on Thursday. With this, high temperatures will go a few degrees warmer than previous afternoons, reaching the mid 50s. Winds will stay out of the north at 5-10mph.    

Up Next: Thursday night into Friday, much clearer skies and light winds will allow thermometers to approach freezing in many neighborhoods, especially north of I-12. The city has not yet reached freezing, so some alerts may be issued by the National Weather Service. A weak storm system will pass our area to the south on Saturday but could fling a few showers as far north as I-12. This activity will be much lighter than earlier in the week. Still, a damp, cloudy and chilly start to the weekend is expected. A reinforcing front and north winds behind it will mean that highs back into the 60s are not expected until at least early next week. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

The Tropics: For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, all is quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next five days.

The Explanation: Mostly cloudy skies will continue as upper level moisture feeds into the region following the wind flow carved out but a broad upper level trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. Within this trough, a weak front will zip through on Thursday but fail to produce precipitation since dry air will remain in tact from the surface into the lower levels of the atmosphere. The dry layer will extend further into the atmosphere Thursday night into Friday allowing clouds to break. Coupled with light, north winds, conditions will be favorable for radiational cooling and low temperatures will make it down to freezing as far south as I-10 with upper 20s possible in southwest Mississippi. Mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rebound into the mid 50s on Friday afternoon. A surface low pressure system will develop in the climatologically favorable region off the southeast Texas coast on Friday night. A warm front will form offshore and southwest winds aloft rounding the basin of the upper level trough still in place will result in a shield of precipitation forming. Increasing clouds and a few showers will be possible as far north as I-12 as this low tracks east across the Gulf of Mexico into Saturday. Most of southwest Mississippi will stay dry, a shower or two is possible around Metro Baton Rouge and a few showers are likely along the coast. After Saturday, the pattern will get a bit less active. The broad trough will finally de-amplify a bit and that will allow a warming trend as a surface high pressure system moves into the Eastern U.S. and sets up onshore flow next week. Thermometers may be closer to average by Thanksgiving. 

--Josh

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