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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Warmer with isolated, afternoon showers and storms

3 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago Tuesday, June 25 2019 Jun 25, 2019 June 25, 2019 5:52 AM June 25, 2019 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Clouds and rain dampened warmth on Monday but hot temperatures will return for the rest of the workweek. A few afternoons may benefit from a cool down shower or thunderstorm. 

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: More sunshine will mean higher afternoon temperatures on Tuesday. Expect a high in the low 90s. A weak disturbance crossing our region will work with daytime warming to pop isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, especially north of I-10. These boomers could bring gusty wind, downpours and frequent lightning. Activity will wane overnight with lows in the mid 70s.    

Up Next: Heat will be the bigger story on Wednesday as another dome of warm air builds over the middle of the country. Through Thursday, expect high temperatures to stay above average and top out in the mid 90s. As you would expect in the summer, an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon hours. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Friday through Sunday, some more instability should be around for greater coverage in afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  

The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next 5 days.

The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, major flood stage continues with a level of 42.3’ as of Tuesday morning. Peaking at 44.1’ on March 19, the river set its 7th highest recorded crest at Baton Rouge. At 171 days, this year marks the longest period above flood stage at Baton Rouge. The level will slowly fall, but is likely to stay above flood stage for several weeks to come. The high water will remain an issue for river traffic and river islands, although some inundation will continue for unprotected low-lying areas. The city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus are protected by levees up to 47 feet. Some soggy areas and seepage may be noted due to the long duration of high water placing pressure on the levees. As some of the Mississippi River diverts into the Atchafalaya River, gauges at Krotz Springs and Morgan City will stay high as well. This creates backwater flooding in parts of Assumption Parish in areas such as Bayou Chene, Stephensville and around Lake Palourde.

THE EXPLANATION:

Into Tuesday, an upper level ridge will try to build across the Gulf of Mexico from the western Atlantic while a weak upper disturbance tracks across northern Louisiana. This will increase afternoon rain chances for areas north of I-10.

An upper level ridge will build over the southern half of the country from Texas to the East Coast through Thursday. It will be a daily battle between daytime heating induced convection and sinking air aloft. The European model suggests the downward motion will suppress most of the convection while the American model says the daytime heating will force out scattered showers and thunderstorms. Splitting the difference, isolated rain coverage is being carried for Wednesday and Thursday. By the weekend, the ridge will be weakened by a deep trough moving into the northeastern U.S. Additionally, an inverted upper level trough may move across the central Gulf Coast. These features lend more confidence to daytime heating producing scattered to widespread rain and thunderstorms.

--Josh

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