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Thursday PM Forecast: humid ahead of weekend front

1 month 1 week 1 day ago Thursday, July 07 2022 Jul 7, 2022 July 07, 2022 4:56 PM July 07, 2022 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Rain coverage indeed took an expected step down on Thursday with only about 30 percent of the forecast area receiving showers. This same trend will hold into Saturday.

Next 24 Hours: Gradual clearing is expected overnight. Low temperatures will stay in the mid to upper 70s and it will be quite humid with dew point temperatures in the mid 70s as well. The week will end with some sunshine and just a stray, afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High temperatures will reach into the mid 90s and ample humidity will create a heat index around 105 degrees.   

Up Next: Saturday will also be hot and humid with highs in the mid 90s and minimal coverage in showers and thunderstorms. A weakening cold front will move into the region late and could send a cluster of thunderstorms toward the I-10/12 corridor during the evening or overnight hours. That stalling front will then be a player in the local weather Sunday well into next week. Daily showers and thunderstorms will occur in most locations with about 2-3 inches of rainfall through next Thursday. Of course, some point locations could receive much higher amounts due to storm downpours, leading to some poor drainage flooding. The active weather could keep highs a few clicks below average, in the upper 80s. However, a full frontal passage and temperatures that are more comfortable are not in the cards. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

The Tropics: For the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean, there are no active tropical systems. No development is expected over the next five days.

The Explanation: An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to meander over the southeastern half of the country through Saturday. However, the atmosphere will remain extremely moist so daytime warming will be more than enough to keep a few showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Any of them will be capable of downpours and localized poor drainage flooding. The slight downward trend in coverage and later onset of convection will allow high temperatures to max out a degree or two higher each day through Saturday. An upper level trough of low pressure will slide down the eastern side of the upper level ridge on Sunday sending a weakening cold front toward the region from the northeast. That scenario is a bit unusual for the Gulf Coast in July so there is no reason to expect cooler or less humid conditions. Rather, the decaying front will stall in the region and serve as a focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms Sunday well into next week. Once again, some of the thunderstorms could produce heavy rain and localized flooding.

--Josh

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